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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Don Troppmann who wrote (31713)5/18/2000 7:47:00 PM
From: Captain Jack  Respond to of 42771
 
Don-- not venting,, must have losses if you play the game,, just so the gains outweigh the losses.
<<"I think you mean to say their financial performance indicate.....">> True--- ZERO earnings is UGLY!

<<" Novell's 1B in cash and ZERO debt ">> Will not last long at the rate they must spend without earnings,,,

Looks like they may wish they had not bought any yet,,, they will get even more shares in the near future for that same money,, which they may be neededing anyway,,,



To: Don Troppmann who wrote (31713)5/18/2000 11:22:00 PM
From: Spartex  Respond to of 42771
 
Morgan Stanley Dean Whitter Research May 11,2000
part 1

Valuation:

We rate Novell Neutral. The company is focused on a new breed of directory-enabled net services. However, Novell pre-announced earnings for the fiscal second quarter that were well below street estimates and the company's internal plan. Manangement attributed the weakness to weak channel sales, poor sales organization, and competitive factors. In our view, NOVL is suitable for investors with a tolerance for the price volatility associated with technology stocks.

Key Investment positives:

Novell's cross platform strategy: Part of the battle of the directories with Microsoft will be whether users want to centralize directory information in one place'Microsoft' or distribute throughout the network. Novell distributes information in federated directories databases throughout the network. This approach eliminates a single point of failure and enhances security, whereas the central-directory approach has the advantage of simplicity of design but creates a single point of failure and a potentail bottleneck.

Consulting engagement establish value creating opportunities: Every sales rep is responsible for generating requirements analyses from their existing customers. These are high-level consulting engagements that take about three weeks and generate fees of $30-40k. After a successful requirements analysis,Novell expects to drive follow-on sales of directory-enabled applications. This represents the long term driver of Novell's revenues and it is important to demonstrate the technology in large accounts. In the meantime, the company needs to crank out bread and butter products and win the battle of the channel.




To: Don Troppmann who wrote (31713)5/19/2000 9:35:00 AM
From: harmonaronson  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42771
 
Don,

There are many people who lost significant amounts of money holding NOVL. NOVL was at 40+ in Feb and now is below 10. That's over a 75% loss from the top! The shame is that the company has good products to offer but executed poorly.

It is not enough for Eric Schmidt to acknowledge that the company made tactical errors but has a good strategy. There has to be accountability for the poor performance, starting with Dr. Schmidt. The company needs to announce some radical changes in how it is going to do business. We don't want to know about another great piece of software that is supposed to sell itself because it is so great. If significant changes are not made soon, and the "do nothing" BOD stays on the sidelines doing nothing, then the stockholders should take the initiative. It's time already.

Harmon