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To: William Hunt who wrote (26047)	5/19/2000 12:45:00 PM
From: Sonny McWilliams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27012

Hello Bill. You are busy today. gg. When do we get lower oil prices? Right. When the GOV wakes up. Our trade deficit was even higher in March. And the saying is that the FED is really worried now because they look at this just like they look at the employment numbers. Pundits think that this could mean more interest rate hikes because the consumer has such an appetite for buying, especially foreign goods. I have another hint here why this could be happening. I said the same thing about the fires in Los Alamos. Hint was: The weather report was dry conditions and high winds and therefore a bad time to put on controlled fires. Trade deficit hint. Most mports have a cheaper price tag and so consumers buy more imports. Our exports have a higher price tag for foreign consumers and therefore those consumers buy less of our exports. Even though the export numbers were higher, the import numbers were still higher. Currency, oil prices etc. So, this is a vicious circle and I can't see how higher interest rates will make this go away. The more the interest rates go higher here, the more cheaper goods we will buy. And we are kind of being flooded, I could use a diff. term, with cheaper goods. So, what is this China deal going to do? And we don't get much accomplished in the WTO when we are being discriminated against. I let you give us a hint. Don't forget the cheap labor in China and 3rd world countries when you give us this hint. Personaly I believe that we could have left interest rate hikes alone while the inflation was low. What would have happened if inflation had really reared its ugly head at one point? What would have been wrong with a 1 point hike at that point and then another one? Gradualism, without much inflation, give me a break. Whack it when absolutely necessary. JMO. gg. We are paying down debt, redeeming bonds and look what is happening. Someone once said that a deficit is not such a bad thing. But I don't quite believe in this scenario. But when you look at this mess, you get to thinking. Maybe they should have given this low unemployment and productivity more of a chance before going to war against it with higher interest rates. What do you think? And this telling business how to do business is putting some cold water on businesses. Just look what's happening to the telecom stocks today. And tech stocks are not looking too great either. Actions against Msft are probably still weighing on these cos. Maybe investors are getting worried about how businesses can grow without being cut down to size evtl. The FED should be pl. It seems that investors are now flocking to more fixed income areas again. Maybe even bank deposits. My whining contribution for today. <G> And it is double witching today. I had mentioned that to Ann yesterday. With everybody fixed on the FED it must not have been mentioned much yesterday. I never heard it. I just remembered it was about the time again for double witching. Sonny