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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (25042)	5/19/2000 2:44:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: Cash positions... Jacob wrote: My point is that the rules are changing. I would be curious to know what % cash the regular posters on this thread have, and at what price points (for their favorite gorillas) they will put that cash to work. I think you will find the survey of thread members portfolios back in a series of posts a few weeks ago which listed what percentages of cash people held. I'm hovering around 15 - 25% depending on what the share prices of my portfolio add up to at the end of the day. I know you only recently made your first post about Applied Materials (fine company). However, I'm not using trailing 12 month P/E as a criteria for my entry points into gorillas. Rather, a metric that helps signal for me possible additional share purchases revolves around PSR. Since my wife and I sock away about 20% of our monthly income into the money market fund for investment purposes, I'm always looking for additional purchase points to put that money to work (today was such a day). Glad we didn't wait for 12 month trailing P/E ratios to meet some textbook formula or we would have been in cash for the past decade or more. Our method for additional purchase is the classic dollar cost averaging scheme because the income keeps rolling in and we keep adding shares to our investments just as we have since the late 80's as a married couple. If we had a big chunk of change sitting in cash which we wanted to invest in the market at some point, I'm not sure how I would treat that except to say I would probably choose more than one buying point to put the money to work for each specific equity. It takes more than just one metric to signal a purchase point. Granted, it certainly appears from this vantage point that the metrics had been overextended going into March. Now, the metrics are coming into line a little bit better and the fear of interest rates seems to be helping that process occur at a healthy rate by limiting volume and keeping prices low. By the way, I love the beauty of that fair state you live. BB

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (25042)	5/19/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Jacob: I would be curious to know what % cash the regular posters on this thread have... See Personal Portfolio Survey of G & K Thread: 4/2000 G&K post #23966 Message 13530736 55% of posters had some cash in their portfolios, which accounted for about 10% of their total positions. ...and at what price points (for their favorite gorillas) they will put that cash to work. Hell if I know. I'm trying to convince my wife this is the time to put some of our cash to work. She isn't buying the pitch. Apollo

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (25042)	5/19/2000 3:57:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Respond to of 54805

>>My point is that the rules are changing. I would be curious to know what % cash the regular posters on this thread have, and at what price points (for their favorite gorillas) they will put that cash to work. << Good points, Jacob. First I will say that having been through several corrections, I've seen that they have some things in common - they look terrible, and they feel terrible. They cause many people start to expect, and believe, that the markets will fall for a long time and that they will, indeed, fall to dismal levels. But, in every single case, ultimately, the market has subsequently reached new highs. Perhaps one day that will not happen. Perhaps one of these times the market will fall and keep falling for the next five or 10 years. But, from what I have seen, history has rewarded those who bought during corrections rather than those who sold. And with that logic I have been buying this week. I added to QCOM around $100, NTAP and SNDK near $70. Right now, all 3 are under water. So obviously, I did not catch the bottom. But then, no one knows where the bottom will be. At least it seems pretty clear that I'm not buying at the top. StockHawk

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (25042)	5/20/2000 11:19:00 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Bottom on Q? I first bought it yesterday; let it be 90! But you can see, from the 2 year weekly chart below, that it could be much lower. I'm only buying about 40-50% of my intended or possible ultimate position in tech stocks now, wary of the 40-50% price downside I picture even for the best companies if we are in a classic, grinding bear market. Keeping cash (or sweet spot cyclicals--E&P companies--as a so far very profitable cash substitute)until we are much closer to historical valuations is IMO crucial to being able to take advantage of opportunities next Fall, next Spring--whenever we have the feeling of a bottom if this is Big Bear. This doesn't look or feel like a bottom to me. To make that call I combine a sense of market history with a sense that investor ebullience has so far faded only to dismay, not despair and wholesale selling. Easy to see the downside in stocks I want to buy, or buy more of, just in a return to levels of late Fall: Buy more Q at . . . I don't even want to think about it: bigcharts.com Missed my last try for NTAP at 41; expect another chance: bigcharts.com Sandisk looks worth an entry level buy at 50. More JDSU at 60; CREE below 90? "Bargain" is relative; bears grind on. My approach is to ease with widely spaced, chart-focused buys, so all my money is in tech only at what I project as a bottom--NAZ 2500 or possibly lower. When people's portfolios have been cut enough, they'll just want out, and the great companies will go down hard along with the bad. Difference is, as many observe--the gorillas will rebound. Thanks all; great folder.