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To: im a survivor who wrote (19545)	5/20/2000 10:54:00 AM
From: arthur pritchard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

kg4: sorry your Q got hit. Your description sounds like what happened to Dell. Your description is very accurate. This is why Greg's attitude, is the best, for my money. Andy Grove's book, "only the paranoid survive", is relevant for me. If you are too leveraged, and have enjoyed the rise phase, you're better really cutting back, than to try to understand the NEXT phase of Q, which is very painful, because nothing makes much sense. You were programmed for the bull, and all of a sudden, none of that applies. Andy Grove called it a strategic inflection point. Tim finally cut back on his Q; now I can relax...Sorry you're going "through it"...

To: im a survivor who wrote (19545)	5/20/2000 4:33:00 PM
From: bobkansas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

KG4-I feel for you and understand where you are coming from. If you read the James Dines book on MASS PSYCHOLOGY (not saying you should buy it)you will find that your fear based reactions are coming from a low-state of being (whatever the hell that is-actually I think he means that one should not make decisions of how to buy or sell stocks in the market when one is down in the dumps mentally. It looks like you are,) When one gets depressed about money, etc. one tends to want to go to the other extreme feeling in an effort to recovery or win your position back i.e. gamble. The problem is that gambling is a losing proposition unless one is the House. In any market, going with the underlying trends and following the higher probability roads imo are key if one is going to be successful. Regardless of what the Fed does this year (including putting the country into a recession), I do not believe the trend of productivity and growth of businesses is going to grind to a halt. If you follow the thinking of Harry Dent (e.g. he wrote the book: Roaring 2000's), the working population of baby boomers (of which I am one) should keeping this economy moving. This is because economic growth is based upon family spending and saving patterns (I won't go further other than to say his thinking makes a great deal of common sense) Also, there are billions of people located all over this world who want a better life. They will seek that life for themselves and their families. At no point in mankind's history have so many people been free to choose to better themselves. Communications, information, tech. are all moving to make life better (and in some ways worst) for mankind. This tread will not stop period. The underlying trend for the economy growth for our country and the world is good. The will be bumps along the road. Currently we have a stock market de-valuation bump that is really healthy for us overall (yes it hurts us stockholders short term-I am down over 350 k from my high this year). Probabilities are in your favor long term if you invest in Gorilla/king type stocks. Probabilities are also in one's favor if they sell covered calls. My thoughts are that you should be VERY, VERY, VERY careful about going for the home run play i.e. speculating with IARC. I think getting on base and hitting singles are better because you get to stay in the game. If you strike out on IARC- you may make a killing or be killed. Better approach imo is that you pick 10 to 15 of the mostly widely held stocks in the portfolios of those on the Gorilla thread i.e. QCOM, JDSU, GMST, NTAP, SEBL, CREE, CSCO, ELON, EMC, INTC, WIND, ITWO ,MMSFT, PMCS, ORCL, SNDK, BRCM, and SUNW Put equal amounts in each. That is, index the gorilla type stocks. By 12-31-2000, I think you might be richer for it. Food for thought. Trash any or all of this post if I am overbounds on anything. I appreciate your honest sharing of feelings about your portfolio here on the porch. Best regards, Bob