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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (13854)	5/22/2000 5:57:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: "Was thinking of doing a trade in NVLS if it got a little closer to 40 area. Not sure if it would be hazardous trading prior to the BTB." BTB is a rolling average of three months prior bookings and billings. I don't expect any problems but I have no idea of how the Street will react. I would watch the Sox today. It traded down in a sloping curve showing good resistance in the 950 area. If this area holds and we get an uptick rally, this will be an excellent sign as we are still 5% off from the May 10th low of 904 and higher than the reaction low of 870 in April. Compare this to the Nasdaq in general. I would watch AMAT today. I do not like the fact that it is hovering near $80. It showed good resistance there on Friday on average volume. I would not want to see an seller attack on the stock with high volume making a close below $79. I believe, at this time, that AMAT's test is more market related than company or sector related. Many large cap. techs tested their lows on Friday. I would also watch INTC today. Xeon news is positive. This stock has shown good RS of late and could well lead a rally in the sector. NVLS is one of the strongest semi equips in the sector. Cloesd only down a percent and change on Friday and bounced hard off of $45 intraday when compared to 4% or so for others. NVLS has not exceeded its reaction low in April of around $40 like ASML and AMAT. Looks like $45 may be the bottom. Others, like LRCX and KLAC, have done so. KLAC looks to have bottomed; there does not appear to be any such thing as a bottom for LRCX. I believe the market has priced in a 50 basis point move in June. I do not believe that is such a great bet. The Fed. wants to slow the economy and not kill it at this point. I expect they saw the market rallying in their face and made an aggressive stance in response last week. Discount rate and hawkish wording were the clincher. They got the market reaction they wanted. I expect to see signs of slowing (moderation) in the economy sometime soon. This may be encouraging to the Fed. The Fed. could well go 25 basis points and move to neutral in June. This possibility has not been entertained by the market. Market seems to be pricing in 50 basis points and retention of the "bias."