Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (51424)	5/21/2000 12:35:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Kyros, Re: "During the 20 years following those peaks, annual stock market returns were -0.2%, + 0.4%, and +1.9% respectively. If, as I believe, we are witnessing a year 2000 stock market top of the same significance as the tops of 1901, 1929 and 1966, buy and hold stock investors are in for a very nasty surprise" If the tech stocks were not necessary and destined for growth, this could occur. since this is not the case, your scenario is unlikely. tp

To: KyrosL who wrote (51424)	5/21/2000 7:56:00 AM
From: Whistler30	Respond to of 99985

Kyros; You make some interesting points, and I agree that Bonds will become increasingly more attractive, but mostly 5-7 years from now. Study the dates you supplied and you'll find they all corresponded to demographic down cycles - that is, a relatively small proportion of the population in their peak earning'saving/investing years. What's more, the Tsunami you speak of is a wavelet compared to the demographic roller that's bearing down on us now - an unprecedented concentration of middle aged boomers. That's why I believe the downcycle we are experiencing now - and I don't even pretend to guess at how long or steep it will be - won't last. IMHO we will see a "second wave" of investing that will dwarf the present (or recent depending on your point of view) bull market. Whistler Whistler

To: KyrosL who wrote (51424)	5/21/2000 8:58:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Fortunately, all is not lost. As I pointed out in my previous post, there are plenty of juicy returns to be had in bond land, and I think those returns will become even juicier over the next couple of months. These returns are pretty close to the long term average return on stocks, and, given the current valuation of stocks and my expectation of future deflation, are a no brainer for the buy and hold crowd. I agree with your comments. However, I think we have more of a risk for inflation in the near term than deflation. Deflation will set in if and when we have a hard landing (which I believe we will have). If that happens, I expect the Fed to do what they are best at -- pumping excess liquidity back into the economy, eventually leading to another bubble. In the meantime, if one believes inflation is on the rise, how about inflation-linked bonds?