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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (51428)	5/20/2000 11:03:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Actually, we are not that far apart, later next year, I think we might have international market catching up with the US (soaking liquidity), but the Nikkei must reverse its current down trend first. The Nikkei's weakness may divert some Yen to our shores short term, and as usual, our friendly Japanese financiers will repeat their mistakes, buying at the top (they bought heavily the last top real estate market just to sell it back to the US at $.5 on the dollar, see the Rockfeller center saga, hey, that is a good solution to our trade deficit). Next year, some of the liquidity soaking events that you mentioned will be at play together with the vanishing US budget surplus (if we indeed go into a slow down), and the gradual deflation of exuberance in the market. It all fits nicely with my long term view of a seven to ten years period where the markets go nowhere (until earnings catch up, or borrowing an earlier poster's comment, gradual deflation (soft landing, if you call a 50% decline type bear market "soft") of the bubble by holding it up rather then pricking it, long enough for debubbling to occur) bound in a wide range (I have 6000 to 13,500 on the DOW and 1900 to 5300 or so on the Naz) Zeev