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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (36227)	5/23/2000 2:02:00 PM
From: lawdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

CSCO downgrade personalwealth.com

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (36227)	5/23/2000 2:15:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

skeeter, how many companies return 10% in cash of their entire market cap? tp

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (36227)	5/23/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: SyncMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Re: Not true. cisco has a market cap of $377 billion. one could use that money and expect $23 billion in profits - GUARANTEED. year after year. with a little knowledge, one could expect $30 billion annually w/ very little risk. RIGHT NOW! I assume that you are looking at rates before inflation. When you take into account inflation, the results look a lot more like 0. (The T-Bill rate of return with taxes and inflation of 1926 to 1996 was .70 on the dollar). now, tell me how many years in the FUTURE csco will have to grow earnings 50% per year to achieve the guaranteed $23 billion? how about the low, low risk $30 billion? This would seem to be an irrevelant question. What stockholders care about is capital appreciation of the stock compared to the guaranteed TB. And since the TB is almost DEFINETLY going to be negative with inflation taken into account over any long term period, CSCO longs think that CSCO can probably do better. :) then tell me how much money the t-bill holder has earned over that time frame (while taking no risk in the sense of the coupons are guaranteed). I would state that the risk of owning t-bills is 100%. You are GOING to lose money if you hold them. at the end of this time frame, how much has the t-bill holder amassed compared to the csco holder? Well, at the end of this time frame, the T-Bill person is underwater. He or she can't buy as much as she could before the time period. Of course, with CSCO it might be much worse, but it has never been before. :) can anybody see the tech future 5 years from now? what if the dot coms blow up as they surely must since their business plans, in general, are unworkable? I can't see 2 weeks in the future, much less 5 years. But recent history (since the telegraph) tells us that humanity seems very bent on constantly striving to increase the bandwith of communications, while reducing the costs. What problems this "striving" fixes are very much in debate, but there is little doubt that communications tech will continue to grow. Certainly, I would think it will grow without the 70-80% of the dot-coms that are going to fail. bears don't always look back. bears often look forward and see the assumptions bulls accept as pushing the limits of ridiculous. bears sometimes consider alternate investments where some bulls think alternative investments mean csco or msft. Neither bulls nor bears are always looking back. It is true that bears tend to concentrate on things that would seem to make them right, while Bulls do the same. But I think that's just human nature. Anyway, try to avoid the T-Bill sure thing arguement. The only thing T-Bills get you is slowly poorer. I think you should consider reading "Investing Strategies for the 21'st Century". It here: fee-only-advisor.com Explains the risk/reward curve pretty well, imho. And is FREE.