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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: cheryl williamson who wrote (45118)5/23/2000 5:14:00 PM
From: SC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
If people were truly worried about security of information, they would demand that the government passed a law that forbid anyone but the social security agency, and the IRS for the sole purpose of collecting your social security taxes, from using their social security numbers. People who are really worried about such things tend to use cash and avoid credit transactions. People tend not to think about these things until they are personally affected in a big way. Most people have not been affected in a big enough way to care.

When people ask me what sort of machine they should buy, my first question is what software do you want to run on it. For the vast majority of people the answer is some sort of application that requires a microsoft OS. If you run a business that takes orders over the web, I doubt you are going to put a notice on your web site that says internet orders available to unix, apple, linux, BeOS all Windows users must call on the phone. It doesn't work that way. As long as the vast majority of targeted consumers use Windows vendors will accept orders placed with Windows systems.

If it is easier to use my phone, or my TV remote control to place an order and have it filled correctly, that is what I will do. On the other hand, If it is easier for me to place the order over some sort of computer I place the order on the computer. Sometimes, it's easiest to get in the car and go to the store.

When I asked one of my secretaries what word processor do you feel comfortable with, she said word perfect, so that is what I bought. A few years later, another secretary felt more comfortable with ms word, so that is what I bought. At home, my wife likes word perfect, my kids like ms word. If you want a productive work force, you provide them with tools that they know how to use, and that they are comfortable with. If you want to sell things to people you make it as easy as possible for them to place an order whatever way they want.

The only reason apple and wordperfect have the market share they do today is that for years schools had apple computers and wordperfect was the word processor of choice at business schools. That changed over the last 5-10 years and schools tend to have windows computers and business schools tend to teach ms word. When I start seeing unix servers and thin clients in the local schools, and star office in the business schools, I will believe that the market is shifting to this solution. I haven't seen it yet and I won't see it until the initial expense for the schools is cheaper than the wintel solution. On the other hand, there is a very good chance that Wintel will become a viable server alternative at a very attractive price, which is why the folks at SUN were so scared and desperate that they encouraged the government to look into things (This will come back to haunt them if they ever get into the dominant position that they desire). If I hire someone who wants to use a unix, apple, linux, or BeOS application and they can tell me why they will be more productive if I shell out the money for the tool they want, I will buy it.

People have long argued that Beta was better than VHS, Laser disks would replace videotapes, high definition TV is just around the corner, etc. The average consumer doesn't care which solution is technically better, but they do care about ubiquitous supply of rental videos, programming (software), and are extremely price sensitive. Until I can go to Wal Mart and find software for an alternative operating system, I will remain unconvinced that microsoft is being replaced as the dominant solution for the average user.

Steve