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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (112190)	5/23/2000 5:24:00 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570334

You keep making statements to the effect that valuations are out of line. This is simply not true in the semiconductor industry. These companies are (were) doing great. Scumbria- You just stuck your foot in your mouth, so you justify that statement. FACT 1)- Average SOX stock P/E is currently 109.94 FACT 2)- Average S&P stock P/E is currently 28.41 FACT 3)- SOX closed today at 870 and has a 52 week low of 363, in other words up well over 100% in the last year Please explain yourself to me... chic

To: Scumbria who wrote (112190)	5/23/2000 5:47:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1570334

You keep making statements to the effect that valuations are out of line. This is simply not true in the semiconductor industry. These companies are (were) doing great. Yes, and the semi's have suffered the least in this correction. I have watched AG for many years, and he has been wrong on a consistent basis. He used to be convinced that unemployment below 6% was dangerous for the economy. Until two years ago, every major economist believed that...its what I was taught in college. In addition, he does not appear to understand the very simple relationship between oil prices and inflation. I don't understand this comment at all. What is the simple relationship? I am seeing the higher cost of oil being passed through. For an example the airline margins are suffering considerably due to the increase in oil prices. They just successfully put an increase through on plane fares. Costs of pumped regular gas is up dramatically from last year. Its only a matter of time before the increased oil costs are passed thru on other products like plastics. You don't agree? ted

To: Scumbria who wrote (112190)	5/23/2000 10:00:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 1570334

Scumbria, OT I have watched AG for many years, and he has been wrong on a consistent basis. He used to be convinced that unemployment below 6% was dangerous for the economy. We have been at 4.5% for several years now, and the sky has not fallen. Economists have a term for this: The Nonaccelerating Inflation Unemployment Rate. It is a rate of unemployment that does not cause increase in inflation. It is not a fixed number. It varies from country to country, and can change over time in a single country. This is related to the Phillips curve, where you have a tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. The great thing that happened in the last 20 years is that United States has been able to shift this curve down steadily year after year. So AG was probably right about 6% few years ago, and th 4.5% rate more recently. He probably thinks that we are not yet ready for a rate way below 4% if we want to keep the inflation in check. The Phillips curve is influenced by a lot of factors, most important of which are labor market flexibility (mobility of the labor force, ease of hiring and firing, willingness of workers to train for new professions and change professions, etc.) and other issues such as free trade, generosity of unemployment / welfare benefits etc.. In addition, he does not appear to understand the very simple relationship between oil prices and inflation. What is it? Joe