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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7078)	5/23/2000 6:32:00 PM
From: lml	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Mike, the one from Florida: His description of what he saw was pretty astounding. So clear, you could pick out the individual gray hairs out of a person's head. And it was so clear, it had the illusion of 3D, etc, etc. Same reports I have read for years. My first glimpse of HDTV was at CES '99 in Vegas. I describe the quality of an HDTV picture to other as analogous to looking through a fish tank or a passenger car window as you view the country side. Yes, the detail is remarkable. If anything, HDTV will make or break the careers of many makeup artists & lighting set directors as any blemish present on an actor's face will be clearly visible on an HDTV screen. Why isn't it obvious that HDTV is the killer app, so to speak, for the broadcast world? . . . I would find it hard to believe that this isn't worth say, $10-$15/month extra for all cable TV customers who elect to have the service. . . . -Will they pay extra for HDTV? The answer would appear to be a resounding, "Yes." So I'm a little lost as to why the MSO world doesn't think the same way? Mike, what you got here is a chicken & egg situation notwithstanding FCC mandated regulations to phase in HD & phase out analog transmission by the end of this decade. As Denver Tech points out, one as to FIRST assess the business model. MSOs are certainly not going to invest in deploying HD technology to their systems if there is no current market for it. How many consumers are willing to invest anywhere from $8,000 to $20,000 in a HDTV system? Of those who might entertain this investment, how many are willing to do so when there is so little HD broadcasting currently available in the marketplace? Initial rollout of HDTV first occurred in the largest of broadcast markets (ie. NY-LA-Chi), then in second-tier markets, but only by over-the-air broadcasters, with DirecTV being the sole exception. With respect to over the air broadcasts, we first saw HDTV broadcasts for major sporting events, then with Leno & PBS specials, & more recently prime time sitcoms by several networks. With the content now available in some but de minimus form, how many consumers are rushing down to their local Best Buy, Circuit City or big screen guy to plump down about $10K for an HDTV system? Not many, but there are some. Is that my final answer? No, not really. The price of these systems has got to fall & become more affordable to larger audiences. The manufacture reps I spoke to at CES this year, & last, believe the sweet spot is in the $3-5K range. But at this time $3-4K will just get you the HD set top box; sorry, monitor not included. I took a liking to a 42" Panasonic thin-paneled plasma monitor. Price: $12K. Sorry, not ready for prime time yet, so I asked the rep when these prices will come down a wee bit. He projected year end Y2K. The audience is watching, and as a result I don't think the MSOs will even focus on the HD format until the audience's ticket price watching turns to action. Once they do, then they will have to size up their HDTV market across various HFC systems & assess where it pays to deliver HD signals, if technically possible. I can only guess that precedent to this occurrence you may see the likes of TWX make the necessary upgrades to the local cable plant in response to increasing subscriber inquiries about HD broadcasts. Any prudent MSO is going to loath losing these key subscribers to the likes of DirecTV if it is unresponsive to such consumer demand as these consumers are often big consumers & you know how those advertising dollars flow. JMO.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7078)	5/24/2000 1:52:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

Mike, my brother, Joseph, now an associate of mine at DTI Consulting, I'm pleased to say, was a part of the Philips HDTV development team in Westchester NY during the Eighties, prior to the HDTV co-op being brokered into place. His work centered on cable tv audio algorithms, and a part of the phase locked loop problems associated with all modes of HDTV transmission. I can always recall his stating that the primary problem (at that time) was getting the audio portion elevated to the level where it was good enough to be paired with the video. In fact, the audio was a distraction, "it didn't belong there," in its earlier iterations. When they partnered with Sarnoff, a demo was put in place in Radio City in Rock Center which was open for viewing (by appointment, of course), home of NBC. Like you say, the clarity was so high and the moving images so vivid that, in this particular demo, folks would swear that they could actually reach out and touch the beads of sweat on BB King's forehead. FAC