To: MileHigh who wrote (72242 ) 5/23/2000 8:43:00 PM From: jmanvegas Read Replies (7) | Respond to of 152472
MH: How have you been? No - I'm not smug at all. Never thought we would see the 70's, but filling that 60 gap if the Naz continues its downslide into the June Fed meeting will be important strictly from a TA viewpoint. I'm not suggesting that would happen, but TA'ers love to see all gaps filled, including the gap at around 2850-2900 on the Naz. That's why all the talk of the Naz going to that level. Technicians hate unfilled gaps FWIW. The eerie thing is that the China vote is probably a close, but done deal in the House. But QCOM is a victim of the Naz and the tech downturn, therefore, the weak close below 80 today. Not that QCOM hasn't been a victim of its own making in hindsight. Since 1/2/00, QCOM has headed down. It didn't even make a decent run when the NAz went over 5000 twice - it remained weakish and under distribution. What with CDMA being the wireless rage these days. So what was all that about in December, 1999. It was about greed, momentum, a B.S 4:1 stock split which forced distribution from the get go in year 2000, a "we can't say who the buyer of the handset division is" story in which there were the NOK discussions rampant at that time on various threads. The handset division was sold for peanuts to a 3rd tier player. Here was a $2B (in sales) division worth not much. So what is Eudora worth? What is Omnitracs worth? What is QCOM worth? That's the question that all investors are facing with tech stocks in general now. The fact is QCOM is a broken stock just from looking purely at the charts. There has been some serious distribution and it had to be overwhelmingly institutional in nature. Is QCOM a buy in here? I don't know. But I love to see the gap at 60 filled, that's for sure. I don't know if that will happen. If it does, I'll consider buying but there are better stocks out there than QCOM. I'm looking to buy the best stocks. It is stock specific, not company specific. A couple of other things regarding QCOM. I didn't care for QCOM's investment in NetZero. A waste of $150M - this is JMHO. I'm sure management has their reasons. But they could have signed a strategic deal with someone like YHOO and not burn cash by giving it to crap businesses. Okay - they need to support their Eudora product line. What it tells me is that the Eudora business can't be worth that much either. The investment in NetZero reminds me of QCOM's investment in G* - another niche B.S. money losing business. Just another albatross around QCOM's neck. Yeah - I'll get all the old time Qheads coming out, defending their QCOM, it's management, and telling me to stop spreading FUD and how dare I question QCOM's management and its strategy. Well that's what investors do all the time - we question. And if I believe there are better investments than QCOM at this time, which I surely do, that's where I'll put my money. As you've stated so many times in the past - Happy Hunting. Lastly, I wish I sold QCOM at the prices you sold yours for. You did great. But I made some nice change, so I can't complain. Good fortune and good health to you. jmanvegas