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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (35341)	5/23/2000 8:01:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: why is AMAT tanking a lot more then the general market or NASDAQ in particular right now? Because it is about the last company to tank, and starts its fall from much higher valuation levels. A lot of stocks peaked in early 1998, sold off in late 1998, and have never recovered their old highs. A lot of other companies were flat (with a lot of up-and-down volatility) from mid-1999 on. AMAT kept on going up all that time. AMAT's P/S is, today, about 9. The longterm historical range is 1-6. 6 is the extreme high end of the valuation range, that can be justified based on the fundamentals. What's happened since September 1999 is, a lot of momentum money has poured in, and now it's pouring out.

To: TimF who wrote (35341)	5/23/2000 9:03:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>>The market is ignoring outstanding news from the company and industry, and instead moving the stock based on general market conditions >They why is AMAT tanking a lot more then the general market or NASDAQ in particular right now? >Tim I've heard some say that strongest are the last to go to finish the selling. The people that sell on weakness save their best stocks until last. That would include AMAT, Intel, Cisco, Sunw, etc... It makes a bit of sense as some of my "weaker stocks" like SFAM (down 1% today) got creamed very early on and are actually holding fairly well now as the stronger companies in my portfolio like LRCX and AMAT (both down about 10% today) are being sold off now. The question is "what to buy" when and if we decide to buy back in? The weaker ones that can give more return or the stronger ones like AMAT that will give more instant gratification but probably lower overall return? Of course, this is assuming we don't get a recession. I do not think we will and I agree that this is probably the tail end of an overall bear market that was hidden by the capitalization weighted indexes like the NASDAQ where super growth was well rewarded while bank stocks are yielding 4% with a p/e of 10! Banks, Russell 2000 and value stocks in general have been in a long bear market. Those of us that invest in high technology have not seen it nor those that invest in index funds but value investors sure have not been celebrating the past two years. interesting market for sure!