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To: tahoe_bound who wrote (19297)5/24/2000 1:51:00 AM
From: KLP  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 28311
 
Ron, as you said, I too, hope you are wrong and right...and t_b, have a question....

You said:

Like your comments about a hybrid analysis paradigm. I would add to that a third component, sentiment. Right now, that is a negative, there is just too much complacency. Has been for quite some time. I would feel much better if there was an extreme selloff with sentiment measures off the charts, leading to a wall of worry comeback like in 1987. That would shake out a lot of the players who do not respect markets and history.

When you mention 'sentiment'and "complacency"....
Who??? The MM's?? doubt it..

Folks on SI?? maybe the day traders, but probably not most everyone else...

The small investor?? that's probably anyone who isn't making trades of $1million or more....and I can't imagine ANY of the small investors who have their retirement funds at serious risk in mutuals, and many other things, being "complacent"....
The financial institutions?? sentiment and/or complacency are two words I find difficult to use with the word "financial institutions"...

That would shake out a lot of the players who do not respect markets and history.

I do agree with you here...but would add two words...'shake out and SHAKE UP ...
History DOES count! And as someone said: "If we don't pay attention and learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it"
KLP