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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/25/2000 12:54:00 PM
From: Optical_Preacher	Respond to of 24042

I agree this is a correction in a bull market, however.... the factors you site that characterize a bear market -- higher inflation, high unemployment, low earnings, dead GDP -- are exactly where we are headed if the Fed continues to raise rates. In other words, a Fed induced correction -- and that is what this is -- could easily undergo a transformation into a recession, leading to a bear market. I think that Greenspan has already overtightend, and that the chances of a recession are currently 50-50, and that the chances increase each time Greenspan tightens. I have long held that Greenspan does not fully comprehend the deflationary nature of the internet, and that this will be his undoing in his attempt to engineer a soft landing. Deflation is built into our economy for years to come, and by fighting the battle of inflation when deflationary forces are just coming into their own, Greenspan will likely push the economy into a recession.

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/25/2000 2:02:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 24042

- High inflation, deflation ot stagflation ol'Jimmy Carter ). - High unemployment. - Low earnings - dead GDP -National " malaise " a la Jimmy the Carter vbg Could you explain which of the above were present from Jan 1973 to November 1974? And btw, Jimmy Carter didn't take the office of the President until Jan 1977, and by then the bear market was already 4 years old!

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/25/2000 3:26:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Tuncia, I will if I want! <petulantly> In truth though, I think you are correct to write 'please don't call it a bear market.' Of the major indexes, the Naz is the only in 'bear' territory (off more than 20%). Optical_P. wrote that hindsight will determine the matter and, to a great extent, I agree. That having been written, though, I am of the firm opinion (right or wrong) that we are likely headed to a place where history will judge this this period a bear market. Until then, it is only a putative bear in my mind. As for the conditions, my reading of the history of markets is that bear sometimes begin with clearly running inflation and falling corporate profits. However, it is simply wrong to say they all do. Most bull market tops begin while corporate profits are still rising. Many tops are accompanied by only wiffs of future inflation after periods of extended business expansion. In fact, these conditions are part of the reason why it is so hard for people to see the top as a "top." 'With everybody working and corporate profits at record levels year after year, how could this possibly lead to a bear market?' That's just it. It can. Ironic, eh? In order for me to be convinced to stop writing "putative bear market" I have to think the general economic conditions are such that the Fed will begin another period of expansion and that inflation is on the wane instead of waxing. Just my 2c. Ciao, David Todtman

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/25/2000 11:46:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

BEAR markets are sneaky..as every most people are hung upwatching the DOW or S&P or Nasdaq..the latter two are cap weighted and the best runners float to the top so that their percentage increases as the dogs percentages in the index drop off as they sink..it mitigates what is really going on as for the DOW it just tosses out dogs and brings in heavy hitters ( or they try to ) BUT LOOK at this quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=2ym That's the value line index ( it's not weighted and is broad index of 1500 the best stocks..) and it tells you more about what the market is really doing. Look at it good..the bear started back in 98, the cap weighted indexes depend on to few stocks at the top of the heap to get their numbers..hence they can lie about market conditions for a long time and get away with fooling most of the people.. Jim

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/26/2000 12:21:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

TA, good post on your part. In my book it will not be a bear market unless it is Dec '00 or Jan '01 and we are not North of 4,000 on the NAZ. Till proven otherwise this is just a very nasty correction. A few old posts of mine relevant to the discussion. Message 13399278 Message 13763661 Regards,

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/26/2000 5:55:00 AM
From: Flapdoodl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Semantics be damned. NASDAQ down 40%! Who cares what name you put on it, you lose. Hope you enjoy your bull market bonanza! : )

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/26/2000 7:21:00 AM
From: MrBuzz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

The Royal Flush ================ When the news sounds terrific, it usually signals a warning on my meter. Poker is a theme that comes to mind. The market has the players folding their hands when they very well should be holding. Does it really matter what technical phase we are in? Or rather should you be watching how fast the cards are dealt or dropped? What if you were dealt the same hand you hold today back in 1998? Would you fold on what appeared to be a pair of deuces? Or hold on what you knew was a royal flush? What was the sentiment back then? Pretty much negative. The same kind of negativity that turned into positive. At some point in '98, some cowboys didn't ride back into the sunset. They stood their ground. All of a sudden, things looked brighter! A pair of wiley AOLs. Full houses of JDSU's, and occasionally, the royal QCOM flush! Word spread like wildfire and more poker players arrived riding on computer mice. All lured by different kinds of fast action poker games with grand, get-rich thoughts. Screams of "YIPPEE" were replaced by "YAHOO!". All the cowboys were happy and headed to the bars to celebrate after a nice day in the saddle. But then something happened. The saddle got hard and hurt to sit in. Preparation H sales rose. Instead of getting up, the cowboys assumed THAT position - the one of pain from overconfidence, big ego, and stubborness. What was once the saddle of royal flushes, took on another meaning of a porcelain kind. Now we sit here today, in what "appears" to be a uncomfortable position, listening to the sounds of the water flow in the turn of the century's, "ROYAL FLUSH". Someday the flood gates will start running. And you will be able to stand up after months of pain and scream, "YAHOO!" once again. Forget the semantics. A "bear", "bull", "rhinoceros", or "giraffe" - who cares! Make a decision to stand pat, bid up, fold! Get ready to stand up and assume the salute position to the flag of the good 'ole United States! Kenny Rogers will still continue to sing that song on the radio. Hopefully this time, people are smarter and will listen. MrBuzz whats-the-buzz.com

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10500)	5/26/2000 9:40:00 AM
From: freeus	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

A correction in a bull market? It felt that way for a while, didn't it? However, people (even institutions are run by people) buy and sell stocks and right now: the psychology is bear Look at almost all stocks: all the way down from their tops, whether they went up a little or a lot, there are unhappy shareholders. Some of them are long, some of them will sell when/if/as the stock tries to regain former upward motion. People are day by day becoming more frightened of the stock market. Every day that this "correction" continues it becomes more and more of a confirmed and established bear. The longer it lasts, the less confidence buyers will feel in buying as their own stocks attempt to recover. Freeus