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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (114)	5/25/2000 11:47:00 PM
From: Demosthenes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

Richard, <<With AMAT currently down 20% from its closing high and having set up a pattern of lower highs and lower lows in the past two months, perhaps the market is now forecasting a slowdown in future bookings.>> Have you noticed that the Naz had corrected over 35% lately? Are you aware of the number of fabs that are being built now that will need to filled with equipment? Have you listened to any of the Q1 CC's from any of the leading equip companies? Do you know what capacity constraints have been created from years of underspending on equipment? Can you understand what 300mm being part of this current cycle means? Richard, wake up and at least mention--if you don't consider--some of these factors--all of which are as important or more so than AMAT correcting along with the rest of the NAZ. HELLO? D

To: Math Junkie who wrote (114)	5/26/2000 2:10:00 AM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 276

Oops - I mistyped the amount by which AMAT is off its closing high: it is down about 29%, not 20%.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (114)	5/26/2000 10:56:00 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

I don't know why you edited the opening message to tone down the bearishness. I'd like to change it to contain a list of "signs" of a cycle top. Still thinking about it and would like all comments. If it turns out that we have already seen the final top for this cycle, then your timing will turn out to be a darn good record in a sector as volatile as this one! I've been debating this because I still don't believe we've seen a cycle top. But have we seen at MARKET TOP? Can we have a market top but not a cycle peak? I don't believe in that perfect market theory crap. Not in this market. If this is a cycle peak, then it is the shortest in history. Isn't a 3 year boom the norm? I'm still hearing about shortages. Flash memory sounds like the dram shortages of the last boom. Even though I've seen some of the signs I remember from 1995, I don't think the hype is 1/2 what it was. I'm wonder if the Internut/New Economy stocks deflated this? I thoroughly believe we are NOT going to see NASDAQ above 4k for at least 2-3 years. If you look at the charts, I believe you need to cut out Nov 99 - Apr 2000 data. It was a classic blow off top. The Fed flooded the market worrying about Y2K. AMAT should trade at 4x sales during this boom cycle, sending it to the 50's. The other tier stocks are now selling fairly cheap if we are still in a boom cycle. This might set up a classic double top. It has been commented that it is difficult to find a leading indicator for the stock price. There are so many indicators for stock prices that it is beyond this thread to comprehend. I'd like to just try to figure out if we're still in a boom cycle? the only strategy I have been able to come up with for consistently making money in the sector, without getting killed in the downturns, is to invest in one or more of the industry leaders, and then to sell half every time the stock doubles I've learned to buy on the way up and sell on the way down. I've left so much money on the table It makes me sick. and double up on the position every time it falls by half. I would NEVER average down in this sector unless you are sure we're near the bottom of the cycle. I'm never sure of anything though. MH