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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gruetz who wrote (11944)	5/25/2000 9:18:00 PM
From: Alejandro	Respond to of 12468

Wow......lots for Bernard here. Good thing it's Memorial Day weekend. My 2 cents......ARTT doesn't stand a chance. It cannot build it's own system. All it has is it's licenses.....and there is some question on the value of them? Same thing could be said about WCII licenses also TGNT but I think tgnt are 24 Ghz. Ok Dr, give us the facts. Ali

To: gruetz who wrote (11944)	5/26/2000 2:07:00 AM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12468

Hi gruetz: I have not kept track of ARTT's debt level, but I bet it is very small compared to the $1.2B of GSTX. Together with mismanagement, this is what sunk GSTX. Since ARTT is just beginning to implement its services, it does not carry yet a big debt, and can thus be acquired at a reasonable cost for its licenses portfolio. With respect to what strategy Qwest might use if it wants to buy ARTT, there is more to it than just letting the price drop. If the debt markets stabilize, then CLEC stock prices will stabilize, so that Qwest might never be able to buy at a very low stock price. It also depends on what services Qwest might want to offer. If wireless data looks important to Qwest, the opportunity costs of waiting would be larger than paying a little bit more for ARTT. This being said, I am not tempted to buy ARTT at current levels. Outside of WCII and NXLK (which is still not that cheap) I would look at TGNT. Because of its Malone connection, you know it will always find willing lenders. I think that WCII has all the licenses it needs, so the days when it might be interested in buying ARTT are probably over [except for the Northern European licenses of ARTT]. I have not kept track of ARTT's cash position, but a rough guess would be in the $125M-$150M range after the 39Ghz auction. It will really need to hit the debt markets in 2001. Perhaps MangoBoy might want to fill in the details here since he is following ARTT very closely. In conclusion, I want to emphasize that the entire CLEC and upstart telecom sector will be sick until junk bond markets reopen. This is not a Nasdaq/NYSE bear market issue, it is a bond market problem. Unlike in October 98, where the debt markets were heavily supported by the Fed, now they are the target, so I do not expect a fast recovery. Best regards, Bernard Levy