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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (25399)	5/26/2000 3:18:00 PM
From: AMF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tekboy: Did Powers & Co. bail on Q-dawg? Any Powers sightings anywhere? on any thread? under any handle? anywhere at all? ...huh?? huh?? anna@graspingatstraws.com

To: tekboy who wrote (25399)	5/26/2000 3:45:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tekboy and all, at what point does Q become a value play again Funny you should ask. I've been following the price all the way down refusing to add any more to my portfolio until the stock becomes a value play in the way I percieve value plays on Gorillas. (I did add it to a child's portfolio at $80.) If we use current consensus estimates and pro forma EPS numbers for the historical data, the $50 price tag results in a Fool Ratio (a version of the PEG) of 1.10. Ignoring pro forma data and using only the historical EPS exlcuding one-time charges, that ratio becomes 1.6. To put those numbers into perspective, finding an enabling gorilla with a consumer-based mass market where the PE mutliple is about the same as the estimated growth is so rare that I truly never expected to see one again since I spotted Qualcomm at the time of the Ericsson capitulation. When my wife come home this afternoon, one of the conversations we will have is about buying more Qualcomm if it gets close to $50. In my mind, that's when the stock becomes a value play. It won't be a value play in the traditional sense, but I've finally learned not to look at Gorillas and strong Gorilla candidates traditionally. Comments anyone? --Mike Buckley P. S. I just gotta remind everyone not to make any investment decisions based on anything coming from my keyboard because I can be horribly wrong!

To: tekboy who wrote (25399)	5/26/2000 11:53:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

tekboy: You asked Eric L for a "pep talk" but I will suggest that: Since the Jan 2003 Qualcomm LEAPS are due to be available May 30, perhaps some of the brokers and powers that be have been doing a bit of stuff (such as they do toward the end of options expiration) to keep enough negative FUD et al, front and center so those LEAPS calls will be a bit less pricey than they might have been if potential buyers really understood the strength of Qualcomm's postion looking out two and one half years. (This could be completely wrong of course, but the thought crossed my mind). So perhaps the "pep talk" would be more appropriate in early June, after the opportunity for the Qualcomm Jan 2003 LEAPS has begun. But if you wish a pep talk, suggest you click this link from Uncle Frank: Message 13786528 In light of that, you might wish to pay careful attention to the statement just issued by Dr J. on behalf of Qualcomm below: Best - and LUCK. Cha2 QUALCOMM Notes Positive Impact of PNTR Vote on CDMA Development and Adoption SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 26, 2000--Dr. Irwin Mark Jacobs, chairman and chief executive officer of QUALCOMM Incorporated (Nasdaq: QCOM), issued the following statement noting the favorable U.S. House of Representatives vote in support of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. "QUALCOMM is very pleased by the House vote in favor of PNTR with China and the positive prospects for China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). PNTR approval is key to expanding United States exports to China." "PNTR is particularly beneficial to QUALCOMM, reducing the prior uncertainty of Chinese government support for a major increase in the use of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology by China Unicom and possibly others. China has a rapidly expanding need for voice communications and Internet access, both of which are well met by CDMA now and into the indefinite future. Much of the Chinese expansion can now take advantage of the world's first commercial third-generation technology, 1x Multi-Carrier (1xMC), with its order of magnitude advantage over existing non-CDMA technologies in supporting a large subscriber base per base station. Such efficiency is particularly important in the limited radio spectrum available in China's major cities." "QUALCOMM is now supplying 1xMC third-generation chips and software to licensed CDMA infrastructure and subscriber manufacturers worldwide. The Company expects initial deployments of 1xMC networks to begin before the end of this year, and commercial operations by all cdmaOne(TM) operators worldwide during 2001. QUALCOMM is also working with Chinese manufacturers to position them for early entry into infrastructure and handset manufacture of this most advanced technology." "CDMA systems currently operating in China have been supplied by Korean and U.S. manufacturers. Chinese officials and operators have been closely monitoring the successful performance of the rapidly expanding cdmaOne systems in Korea and Japan as well as the United States. Chinese operators are also interested in trials in Korea and Japan of 1xHDR, which supports up to 2.4 Mbps Internet access, both mobile and fixed, while sharing the same base stations as 1xMC, thus minimizing cost. Other third-generation CDMA systems using wider bandwidths than CDMA 1xMC, such as WCDMA/UMTS, although coming to market later and fully supported by QUALCOMM, do not achieve this performance." QUALCOMM Incorporated (www.qualcomm.com) is a leader in developing and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. The Company's business areas include integrated CDMA chipsets and system software; technology licensing; Eudora(R) email software for Windows(R) and Macintosh(R) computing platforms; satellite-based systems including portions of the Globalstar(TM) system and wireless fleet management systems, OmniTRACS(R) and OmniExpress(TM). QUALCOMM owns patents which are essential to all of the CDMA wireless telecommunications standards that have been adopted or proposed for adoption by standards-setting bodies worldwide. QUALCOMM has licensed its essential CDMA patent portfolio to more than 75 telecommunications equipment manufacturers worldwide. Headquartered in San Diego, Calif., QUALCOMM is included in the S&P 500 Index and is a 2000 FORTUNE 500(R) company traded on The Nasdaq Stock Market(R) under the ticker symbol QCOM. Except for the historical information contained herein, this news release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including: the risk that the transactions contemplated by the agreement may not close, the technical and marketing trials may not be successful, HDR technology may not become commercially deployed, timely product development, the Company's ability to successfully manufacture significant quantities of CDMA or other equipment on a timely and profitable basis, and those related to performance guarantees, change in the economic conditions of the various markets the Company serves, as well as the other risks detailed from time to time in the Company's SEC reports, including the report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 26, 1999, and most recent Form 10-Q. QUALCOMM and OmniTRACS are registered trademarks and OmniExpress is a trademark of QUALCOMM Incorporated. Globalstar is a trademark of Loral QUALCOMM Satellite Services, Incorporated. cdmaOne is a trademark of the CDMA Development Group (CDG). Windows is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. Macintosh is a registered trademark of Apple Computer Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Julie Cunningham, Investor Relations 858/658-4224, Fax 858/651-9303 jcunningham@qualcomm.com KEYWORD: CALIFORNIA INTERNATIONAL ASIA PACIFIC BW0149 MAY 26,2000 10:33 PACIFIC 13:33 EASTERN

To: tekboy who wrote (25399)	5/27/2000 3:00:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tek (and Cha2), Re: Important grist for the Qualcomm mill - a Great Presentation A good lead in to a "Pep Talk"? MAXIMIZING THE 3G MARKET: Perspectives on Spectrum Administration and Evolution to 3G cdg.org A "five star" address by William Bold (QUALCOMM Incorporated) delivered in Bangkok on 4/29/2000 and posted to the CDG site on 5/26/00. A must read for every Qualcomm investor, IMO. Note: This is a very large PowerPoint file (2.5MB). I suggest saving it to disk and then opening in PowerPoint (or be prepared to wait a bit). I like this slide: QUALCOMM LEVERAGES ITS LEADERSHIP POSITION IN CDMA TECHNOLOGY IN EACH OF ITS BUSINESSES * CDMA Technologies * Technology Alliance * Wireless Systems * Digital Media & Government * New Product Development Cha2 will like this slide: INTERNET ACCESS DEVICE MIGRATION I think he'll like this one also: IN 2000, WIRELINE DATA TRAFFIC BEGINS TO EXCEED VOICE And: MSM ROADMAP Some believable*** (?) actual & forecasted subscriber numbers: DIGITAL STANDARDS MARKET SHARE 1999-2005 - 1999 465 Million Subscribers * TDMA - 10% * CDMA - 13% * PDC -- 15% * GSM -- 62% - 2000 1.8 Billion Subscribers * TDMA - 14% * CDMA - 30% * PDC -- 2% * GSM -- 44% * 3G CDMA - 10% (all flavors presumably) *** Gotta dig down on this one. Not sure it jibes with other forecasts I've seen. Something is screwy. 30% CDMA in 2005 is a stretch, IMO. I work off 20% in 2004 and can't figure out how we get to 30% by 2005. Maybe there is a China dream in here. GSM lower than it should be, I think. TDMA (EDGE) is being discounted atrociously. Be that as it may, CDMA continues to increase market share. Other slides - all great: - CDMA: A DECADE OF SUCCESS THE VOICE AND PACKET DATA SOLUTION - MSM ROADMAP - IMT-2000 STANDARDS COMPENDIUM - IDENTIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL SPECTRUM FOR IMT-2000 - 3G FROM DIFFERENT PATHS - CDMA 450 OPPORTUNITY - OVERLAY STRATEGIES (5 Slides) This presentation is worth the download time! - Eric -

To: tekboy who wrote (25399)	5/28/2000 11:21:00 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Tek (Merlin), Re: Standards and the Gorilla Game: The Dynamics Of Setting Standards In High-Tech Markets - A Chasm Group Slide Presentation (36 slides) fuji.stanford.edu This 36 slide presentation is a good supplement to Geoffrey Moore's Trilogy and particularly The Gorilla Game. It was referenced on this thread some time ago, but I think it is worth referencing again. It reviews the technology adoption cycle but relates the adoption of standards to it. Fellow threadsters have had to listen to Cha2 and I prattle on about standards as they relate to CDMA (Qualcomm) v. competitive technologies (GSM & TDMA), and possibly wonder what is the significance of these conversations. The significance is that the standards process has a significant impact on Qualcomm shareholders. Standards setting and the technology adoption cycle go hand in hand when we are are talking about the competitive advantage of proprietary open architectures (a gorilla characteristic) v. commitee-controlled architectures, and this is where Qualcomm has a significant advantage over other companies engaged primarily in wireless such as Ericcson & Nokia, or partially in wireless such as Motorola, Lucent & Nortel. Geoff addresses this subject in Chapter 3 of the RFM (Page 52). He only devotes 3 pages to it, but it is a good place to stick a page point, and on those pages I have more highlighted text than unhighlighted. This is an area of the book that I wish he would expand on. I think he is particularly weak on "commitee-controlled architectures". This slide presentation is evidently meant to expand on the 3 pages in the RFM. It is very good but very high level. Having heard Geoff speak on several occasions using PowerPoint slides to guide the presentation, I would guess that his presentation around the 36 slides could easily run well over an hour and perhaps approach 2 hours. The presentation referenced here is PowerPoint converted to HTML so there are no speaker notes. I would most definitely like to sit through a complete presentation. What does this all have to do with Qualcomm and CDG? The "Holy Wars" have been not only about the clash of a Discontinuous Innovation v. Continuous Innovation, or the EU v. the US, they have been about the clash of a Proprietary Open Architecture v. commitee-controlled architectures and regulatory agencies that are peripherally involved in standards setting or adoption. Slide 5 says: Discontinuous innovations foster new power structures ... if they get adopted. This relates to the ITU's tough stance on having ERICY & QCOM settle their IP differences, the ERICY/QCOM accord, the compromise on chip rate, the adoption of a physical smart card based SIM/R-UIM rather than a logical equivalent, ongoing spectrum issues, harmonization, etc. One of the reasons that Qualcomm is today 100% of the wireless portion of my portfolio is that they, unlike their competitors, are the driving force behind and enabler of a discontinuous innovation that has a proprietary open architecture, and they have more than held their own in committee and in battles with competitors that base their architecture on the needs of the participants in committees. Qualcomm has compromised when necessary in these battles (occasionally a tad late, or in the nick of time, depending on your perspective). The battles are not yet over. 3GPP (UMTS/WCDMA) has released an initial standard. The standard will evolve in phases through the end of this decade. 3GPP2 (cdma2000) has released an initial standard. This standard will also evolve in phases at least through through the first half of this decade. The ITU has approved both (and 3 others) under IMT-2000. OHG is trying to harmonize these. Qualcomm & CDG have been denied participation in 3GPP. They whine & moan publicly about this. 3GPP has established terms by which Qualcomm & CDG can participate in 3GPP2. One of these days Qualcomm & CDG will except these terms. This will mark a partial cessation in the Holy Wars. Qualcomm & CDG are not quite ready to accept the terms. I trust Dr. Jacobs judgment in this matter. I have made this post overly long, but I think the slides referenced are important, and I think mobile wireless telephony represents an excellent case study to illustrate the Gorilla Advantage. ... and make no mistake about it. Qualcomm is a Gorilla, and they are doing just fine in the Holy Wars. - Eric -