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Technology Stocks : ATI Technologies in 1997 (T.ATY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stocker who wrote (5565)	5/27/2000 8:28:00 AM
From: SBHX	Respond to of 5927

My initial response to the earnings warning is extremely negative, but now that I have a chance to read it carefully, the market's response seems overdone. Given that siii was planning this exit from graphics for so long, it makes sense that they would be dumping all their graphics parts at any price they can get. Stupid of us shareholders to not foresee this earlier, much of the customers in the PC world will take price as their main determining factor, they won't hesitate to do one time deals even with no future support. Of course, the end-user would be foolish to take products for which they will not have future s/w updates or support from, but it happens. It's also ironic that given that siii owes most of their problems in graphics to ATY, their action is equivalent to a nasty going away present. 6 months from now, a partial recovery is very possible, but there's now this ugly stain in their earnings that will hang around for a while. It's really ugly, but it could be a bargain in hindsight. The short term worry is if the reaction continues to drag this down further, but $15 seems to be a good line. If it breaks 15, it might be a good sign for a good base, but it might take months of basing before it can breakout again, and that takes good earnings from the radeon.

To: Stocker who wrote (5565)	5/27/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: Edward W. Richmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5927

Stocker, I agree with almost all of your assessment of the current situation as it relates directly to ATY's operation, competition etc. My concern was with Robert's comment about market share. If ATY had dropped prices substantially and had still lost market, I would have major concerns. Certainly, I would not have made another purchase on Friday morning. I believe that ATY did the right thing in dropping prices to retain customers. In my mind, it is better to "pay the piper" and maintain a supplier/customer relationship during a difficult time rather than protecting the top and bottom lines of the financial statement and, later, trying to win back lost customers. I disagree with you comments on analysts. They may have access to research and information well beyond what retailers can access. However, I believe that analysts are often unreliable in the conclusions they attribute to this information. I question their objectivity. Examples 1. If an firm does an underwiting for a company that is a real dog, what kind of research report will the firm provide? One that promotes the placement of the new shares, or an objective assessment of the company's real prospects? Look at the analyst's published reports and price targets for companies that are in big trouble and for which they have/had some financial involvement. 2. If a company has a supply of shares that they wish to sell, you can bet that they will NOT give a negative analysis, no matter how bad the company is. 3. If my firm has a financial interest in a competing company, I may well be motivated to hammer ATY and promote the stock with which I have a business interest. 4. This is the one that would most likely apply to ATY. If a company has a bad quarter and you have no financial interest in it, short like crazy, provive a very negative analysis and give a VERY low price target. Hmmmm! Does the name Yorkton come to mind? I am sorry to belabour the point, but I think we need to look for mixed motivations when evaluating analyst's comments, research reports and price targets. Having said all that, I do expect to see ATY in a trading range for at least the next two quarters. That doesn't cause me a lot of concern. In a year or so, I do expect to see a much more positive view of ATY. Yes, it will take time. Ask Newbridge Networks or Lucent. Regards, Ed

To: Stocker who wrote (5565)	5/28/2000 7:33:00 PM
From: OrionX	Respond to of 5927

Stocker, Evey company I follow has at least two competitors. So, ATI having Intel and Nvidia is nothing new. They been there for many of the past qtrs and ATI has grown nonetheless. As for, shrinking margins, flat to shrinking revenue growth, negative earnings you can't make the argument that this current qtr represents the future. I still believe these are events in time not precursors of the future. Maybe margins may not continue in the 30%, but then unless you have a monopoly, competition will eventually force a reduction in margins for all companies in any market sector under the sun. Only new products can usually sustain higher margins, and ATI will be releasing such products. I'm also awaiting to see the earnings from the consoles and HDTV STB business which should provide +ve impact to earnings. I too agree that for now ATI will be stuck in a range until new deals come to view. As for analysts, I could do without them. If you look back in time at this stock's price, you'll see that analyst upgrades have never provided any significant impact in stock appreciation, yet their negative comments have always caused a stock price decline. Analyze this and tell why. Good luck to all and make the right moves. OX