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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (124)	5/27/2000 11:09:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

Zeev, I believe that: the 300mm build will most likely happen during this cycle; migration to Cu will also occur during the cycle; migration to smaller feature sizes will be close to a neverending process; and that this will result in very significant earnings growth for the gorillas providing the required technology for those thrusts. I further believe that capacity shortfalls will keep this cycle going beyond the current 2002 estimate for the cycle peak. i.e. Greenspan won't seriously screw up even though I also believe that the Fed has overshot the mark with the last couple hikes, and will be forced to either ease rates or add liquidity or both. Thus, I see AMAT and several others easily setting new highs (price) even though I don't expect significant new highs for P/Es or PSRs, etc. The new highs will be based upon higher earnings, revenues, book value and free cash flow. I'm not much for putting a number on things, but I do expect the sector to outperform the market and the NASDAQ 100 for at least the next 2-3 years. Ian.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (124)	5/31/2000 10:29:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 276

As I've said before, I don't invest in the equipment sector, so I don't have an opinion on whether the stock price high for the cycle has been reached. But I don't think we're anywhere close to peak sales or peak earnings. Regarding the slight drop in B2B, I think it's very positive . Falling B2B while orders remain strong means that equipment companies are ramping up to meet the demand, reducing the risk that long lead times will strangle chip company expansion. Katherine