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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mauser96 who wrote (25430)	5/27/2000 11:17:00 AM
From: Brian K Crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Re TA A more reliable way to judge overpriced markets is to look at the degree of speculation in stocks you don't own. I have lurked around SI since '95, and noticed a definite positive correlation between stocks experiencing blowoff tops and the number of posts on a stock's message boards. When the board you have been steadily reading for months or years has a sharp upward spike in posting volume, including lots of new names, it is a definite warning signal. I am not talking about a few new posts. I am talking about tripling or quadrupling the former daily average post count. Or in the local lingo "thread bloat". I don't know how to quantify this to any sell rules, but I do plan to watch for it in the future as an indicator of excess enthusiasm in stocks I own. The harder part will be to avoid rationalizing away these indicators of excess. I have proven to be a proficient rationalizer. :-) BTW, this indicator should work in reverse. If the G+K thread were a stock, it would be a buy here. Brian

To: mauser96 who wrote (25430)	5/28/2000 5:08:00 AM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

I don't know enough about TA to comment if it works or not and have heard comments from both camps in 26 PM (one thing that some one posted in Pm was interesting"TA works better in extreme market conditions than in Normal market because the signals become very strong and clear").I don't know if that is true. I brought up this whole issue mainly to get different perspectives on the LTBH issue and TA somehow got tossed in there.The issue is not really TA but rather, what one does when faced with extremes beyond any measure in the history of the stock market.To me GG is a pure,highly concentrated LTBH approach.The manual points out that "one sells a Gorilla only on proven substitution threat." I am not looking to buy and sell my holdings on a weekly or monthly basis but IMHO there are times when things get to such extremes that you need to question the logic in holding and not taking some of the table.This goes against the GG approach,but I believe a lot of us here are practicing the GG approach with variations.