Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (52356)	5/27/2000 10:35:00 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

PS: And Greenspan has already achieved what he set out to achieve IMHO. Hasn't he? Economy slowing. Net stocks crashed. No more irrational exuberance. Now to get rid of the irrational LACK of hope. We'll see.

To: American Spirit who wrote (52356)	5/27/2000 11:23:00 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 99985

<<What exuberance?>> We keep hearing about all the cash on the sidelines but I really doubt that a lot of people have cash on the sidelines. I think traders do for sure, but I think investors (general public) has mostly huge debt on the sidelines. Hopefully the money that is coming out is going towards paying off some of the over-leveraged loans people and corporations took on last year. IMO with whatever money there is on the sidelines we will try to rally on the hope that the fed is close to being raising interest rates. That will last until people figure out that corporate earnings are going to slow, and its going to be hard to raise stock prices on declining earnings. The market sure doesn't look bottomed yet to me. There is nothing in the charts that signal a bottom is in. From my experience you can loose more money trying to find the bottom than by getting in after the bottom is in place. Sure you will miss out on some gains by not being lucky enough to get in at the absolute bottom, but if the market really turns then there is still plenty of money to be made. We still have way too many blow ups happening in "safe" stocks like COST GM T etc. etc. This is not a healthy market. Looking at the charts I see 3400 or so as the upside for the Naz and about 2000 on the downside. SP and DOW look like they are rolling over. The risk/reward just isnt there yet to take any positions. Day trading or overnight trades are about the only thing that has been working for several weeks. good luck M.

To: American Spirit who wrote (52356)	5/27/2000 12:03:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Fatbrain.com doesn't make any money. See biz.yahoo.com They lose more money than their stock price. Their P/E is -1.00. Here's a great idea. Grant every employee an option to buy more stock at 0.25 so that the float increases by 4-fold. If they do that and stock stays at its current price, the EPS per share will improve from -4.00 to -1.00. Egghead.com probably doesn't either. I agree with you about the retailers. I suspect that if sales are going poorly this quarter, that group should bottom by the time they report their earnings in August. August is also a seasonal/cyclical low for retail stocks.

To: American Spirit who wrote (52356)	5/28/2000 12:44:00 AM
From: P314159d	Respond to of 99985

See this short guys perspective if you don't see what I speak of. thestreet.com Excerpt from TSC on the overvaluation regarding CSCO: If the data start to show a slowdown, "the Fed will come to its senses and do only one more hike" this year, says Peter Canelo, U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. He believes the leadership once the market breaks out of this slump (and he does believe that will happen) will be dominated by "good companies from the old economy." That last statement illustrates the problem with sector bets right now. It's a theory repeated by several strategists that the way to go may not be to concentrate on sectors, but rather on stocks with P/E ratios that rank in the bottom half of the S&P 500. Are they poised for a move? Small caps like the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index have not gotten back on track since the entire market dropped in March and April. Of course, many of these low P/E stocks have been touted for a long time and haven't produced, but with technology spending expected to slow (and growth as well) it's much harder to justify a bet on the same technology stocks. Canelo does foresee a time to get back into technology names. He says if the Fed is near the end of its current phase of tightening, technology leadership should reassert itself sometime around the presidential election and propel the market through 2001. "I think you go back to tech before the end of the year as soon as you start to see more conviction about the slowing," he says. "We know that there's going to be the same old leadership problem. Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) and other very high P/E stocks may go sideways for a long time." He compared Cisco's valuation to Wal-Mart's (WMT:NYSE) in the 1980s, a stock that eventually could no longer justify its valuation and went sideways for more than four years, despite the company's quality. >>hopeless capitulation. That is ALWAYS reflected in the P/C ratio and it is not right now at .41. See Schaeffers Research Online for the P/C data. Plus remember the 20month MA is about to break for the first time since 98 and only the third time since 82. Remember though that the market was historically overvalued last year at 2500 when it blew off its top to 5000 and interest rates were a full point lower, so it should go much lower just to equalize that sense of overvaluation. No i am not trying to erase the overvaluation, since that would take a move to about 1400! I am just looking for the inevitable retracement of a parabolic move we saw in Oct to Mar time frame. It will be erased. No terror in it for me. Still too much margin out there, one more time....