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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25433)	5/27/2000 12:07:00 PM
From: BirdDog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

However, if you've been investing in this arena only for about six months,..... you need more time to have a valid measurement of portfolio performance. I have been in with most my money for 6 months. I am not disagreeing with you. But would like to mention that I have nothing to whine about. I waited and bought on Oct. 19th. Since that time, the NAS is up 19%. I am up 34%. I also sold for long term spending money in Feb...If I include that as not a loss...I am now up 55%. I surely have nothing to whine about. I must confess however, that when the words "March" and "Sell" are mentioned that I feel like Pavlov's Dog. I am worth less than half of what I was in March. If I did sell, I could now buy in and hold double the amount of shares in the same companies I still love. I did time the market on getting in...I was hoping for a crash in the third week in Oct...It didn't happen, but was the starting line for the latest run up. I also knew that these recent run ups have been peaking about Feb-March... I'll quit now as I feel too much like Pavlov's Dog... Ron

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25433)	5/27/2000 1:48:00 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Merlin, << More important, understanding the perspective of that upward volatility, we shouldn't be surprised or particularly dismayed that the Naz has tanked nearly 40% in the last ten weeks. We live in a highly reactionary society and the stock market proves it almost monthly to me. And just as the market reacted to rapidly increasing highs, it will eventually react to the current downward trend and return to new highs. >> Good post. Thanks as always. I just went back and looked at my end of year personal portfolio recap and the notes I made to myself. Thought I should share: In 1999 NASDAQ had an unusual year finishing at 4069.33 up 85.3% for the year. A correction would not be unusual (to put it mildly). It can and will appear anytime. Barring unforeseen crisis's, I am betting that when one occurs, it will likely be of relatively short duration and that my 41.5% target for 2000 is eminently achievable since my 10 stock portfolio consists of all Gorillas & Kings, although the risk is that I am all tech. There may be some hurdles to leap over first. "A lot of profit-taking has been deferred until January," says Prudential Securities market analyst Larry Wachtel. "Wall Street didn't embrace the fantasies of Y2K but will embrace the realities." That said, Wachtel is no bear. Every overextended bull market, he explains, needs periodic blowoffs. The shakeout Wachtel is anticipating would bring the major indexes more into line with the under performing broader market. I also noted to myself (from a clip somewhere): This year "we had a Santa Claus rally which usually begins in the last five trading days of the year and carries over into January's first two trading sessions, setting the tone for the market for the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 32.46 to 4,069.33, the latest in string of records. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended the year with an impressive gain of 85.6% closing the year at 4,069.33. What's more, the Nasdaq has soared 183 percent since Oct. 8, 1998, when it hit a low of 1,419, after the Russian currency crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management". - Eric -

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25433)	5/27/2000 3:30:00 PM
From: rudyprins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike: I would like to continue to pick your brain (and others'??) with respect to strategies, especially in view of ports that have suffered losses, including mine. I have appreciated the general discussion comparing TA with LTH strategies, particularly your willingness to share your own thinking. How about addressing tax issues? Understanding perfectly that one cannot time the market, but knowing that everyone considers one kind of metric or another to make decisions about buying and selling, does the following scenario come into play with any of the experienced ones on this thread? Hypothetically now, if one bought QCOM for 150 LESS THAN A YEAR AGO (just assume no splits occurred), sold during the big correction in April for, just say, 100 having a sense the stock would tank even more using whatever methods one uses for this kind of decision. The deliberate selling strategy here is that one would take the loss for tax purposes, then buy back in at an "appropriate" time at least one month and one day later. Having done this, one would be back in at or near the same investment level (in the case of Q, for even less) ,and STILL IN A LTH mode, but having benefited from the "loss" that one can use for tax advantages next year. I'm not sure this is an appropriate way to analogize the issue, but hoping you get the sense of the question, I would appreciate input. Sorry if this is stretching the OT issue too far. Personally, so far anyway, I have just held, period! rudy