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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (127)	5/28/2000 9:58:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

Ian, having stayed out of the last two months debacle in the semi equip, I think that now is the time to get back in for a very nice "bear market" rally which I think will get some of the semi's to within 10% to 20% of their recent highs. Some might even make marginal new highs (I wish I knew which one). I must admit that the "turnips mislead me by a week or so (earlier in the year, they painted the "picture pretty well, forecasting a May disaster, but they expected the low to be set May 18, they were probably wrong by a week or two), but right now, I think we are in the process of putting a "flat bottom" around here, and getting ready for a frolicky "summer rally", so short term, it seems we are both optimistic. Zeev

To: Ian@SI who wrote (127)	5/31/2000 10:35:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

>>While the capacity builds, technology moves and 300mm migration is underway, I wouldn't be surprised to see Capital equipment spending trend well above the norm for a year or 2.<< Well.... I think it's a little more complicated than that. The Taiwanese turned the spigot on full at the first sign that the market was improving, but are now saying that they won't continue to spend at that level. Which I think is a good thing because it reduces the overcapacity risk. >> And as I mentioned in an early note [to you???], many chipmakers still have empty shells just sitting there waiting for equipment. This should permit a higher percentage of CapEx to go directly to the Equipment companies.<< That was true in 1999. My understanding is that most of the shells have been filled, and most 2000 (especially late 2000) equipment buys are for new cleanroom space (both greenfields and expansions). Katherine