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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blake_paterson who wrote (129)	5/28/2000 1:15:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

Dataquest are perennially too high on their forecasts, IMHO. Semiconductor International shows a forecast for the year 2000 of (quarterly)$43 B, $41 B, $45 B and $55 B, or $184 Billions for 2000. For the year 2001, their forecast is $52 , $50, $55, $65 Billions for the four quarters respectively, or a total of $222 Billions. I know, wireless is going to take over the world and replace the relatively tame PC industry that drive the semi cycle in 1995. Excuse me, but if that was the case why are Ericcson and Motorola so weak and forecasting slow downs in their sales. Only Nokia is still "seeing" a very bright future. You need a good 20 or more (I wish I knew the exact chip content) portable phones to replace one PC (average chip content about $300 to $400). I think that Dataquest is dreaming ($76 B in Drams in 2002, a VVBG). Zeev