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To: Q. who wrote (136)	5/29/2000 12:41:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 276

D, here's the ratio of monthly reported SEMI orders vs semiconductor sales. Not quite what you talked about, but an indicator nevertheless. geocities.com I'll update this and all other charts with last month's data in the next few days. Gottfried

To: Q. who wrote (136)	5/29/2000 12:59:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

John, I'd see CapEx peaking between 20 and 25% of chip sales and holding within that range for a year or more. As long as Demand exceeds Capacity, pricing will stabilize or increase for a short period of time - up to 2 years. As usual, this will attract excess investment and may lead to an overcapacity situation. The migration to 300mm will almost certainly lead to lower leads which might alleviate the tendency to overbuild. That's a long shot that I wouldn't place too much of a bet on. Even INTC will invest more than 10% of its revenues rather than yield market share to AMD and the flash competitors. The only reason to believe that the present expansion will continue to attract capital is the increasing imbalance between Supply and Demand. Profits will increase; and that will attract money like flies to something or other. Ian. +++++++== 300MM: I believe AMAT when they said about 1/2 of the 2001 greenfield fabs will be 300mm. I further believe that the percentage will increase year after year. +++++++++++ The chip equipment sector is growing faster than the auto sector - about 2 1/2 to 3 times faster. They tend to be more profitable (at least during uplegs); and IMO, deserve a higher multiple than a relatively mature industry.