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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67275)5/29/2000 10:52:00 AM
From: BigBull  Respond to of 95453
 
OT - An interesting account of the decline and fall of Stanley Druckenmiller.

afr.com.au



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67275)5/29/2000 12:01:00 PM
From: Warpfactor  Respond to of 95453
 
Anyone a fan of Bob Brinker?

Over the weekend on his national "Money Talk" radio program, Brinker was calling for a 20-25% Bear market rally in the NASDAQ index, citing various technicals and noting that markets "never move in a straight line".

I've listened to his program for perhaps 8 years now, and always found Brinker's macro calls to be quite prescient.

If interested, suggest you visit one of the BB threads on SI.

Warp



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67275)5/29/2000 2:02:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Slider, heh-heh- I take it that you do not agree with Joe B. But Joe B. said in year 2000- not in the next month particular levels would be reached...

Here's Market Edge's market analysis..I posted it mainly to note the total NASDAQ short interest- which is getting very high.

Both Morgan Stanley and (?) Goldman Sachs issued macro calls on Friday saying that sings of the economy slowing down are already evident too.....



Weekly Market Comment (Week ending 5/26/00)

The markets were under pressure last week as high volatility and low volume were the name of
the game. For the week the DJIA lost 327.61 points (-3.08%) and closed at 10299.24. The
NASDAQ fared worst losing 185.29 points (-5.47%) and closed at 3205.11. On Tuesday, the
NASDAQ closed at 3164.55, which marked a decline of 1884.07 points (-37.32%), from its record
high (5048.62) recorded on 3/10/00. This is the sharpest pullback in NASDAQ shares since
01/29/76 (37.3%)

The CTI, which reversed to bullish on 3/3/00 (DJIA-10367.20), is a bullish +10 and is projected to
remain positive until late September 2000. The Momentum Index remained neutral at -2. The
"Market Posture" continues to be regarded as bullish.

The percentage of bullish investment advisors declined to 46.0% from 49.1% which is a neutral
reading. Breadth remains soft as the NYSE advance/decline line lost -1075 units while the number
of NYSE stocks making new 52-week lows exceeded those making new highs on all five trading
days. The number of stocks in the Market Edge universe (4564 NYSE & NASDAQ stocks) above
their 200-day moving average declined to 38.2% from 44.6%. Inflows into U.S. equity funds
continues to be strong as $15.6 billion was added during the week ending 5/17/00. Another
bullish condition is the level of short sales on the NASDAQ, which rose 4.8% to 2.8 billion
shares as of May 15th. The stocks with the largest short positions include Dell, Cisco, Oracle
and Microsoft.

The upside projection for the DJIA for this cycle is 12272 (+or- 120 points). Primary support for
the DJIA remains at 10200. Secondary support is 9,730 with resistance at 10970. Support for the
NASDAQ is 2920 while resistance is 3730.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67275)5/29/2000 2:42:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Slider, Help me with this... When these institutions (mutual funds) 'take money off the table'...where do they put it?

Seems like they can only go to so much cash and still be in compliance with their investment objectives. I don't think mutual fund folks get paid management fees to park most of the money in cash.

Just wonderin'

big



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67275)5/30/2000 2:07:00 AM
From: Richard Nehrboss  Respond to of 95453
 
Slider,

Not that I believe that the market is worth Joe B's targets, but I do want to make one point. Fleck indicate that the rise in Nasdaq equates to Nikkei 11k to 79k over the last five years... nope... nasdaq 900 ish in 1995 to 3200 is nikkei 39k.. still bad, but no 79k.

Go FLC... Where and when do you see peak earnings for the bird $6/share? How about earnings multiple? 10-15?

Richard