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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oak Tree who wrote (23724)	5/29/2000 12:34:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Oak Tree, Frankly, I am almost purely a technician and really do not consider fundamentals that much. I feel fundamentals are for the longer term view, and since I am a short-term trader(1-30 days) I really dont care what happens 6 months to a year from now. As you commented that bear markets do not occur when unemployment is so low - that makes sense, but couldnt unemployment start reversing, say in a relatively short period of 6 months. And we all know how fast the market can change direction. I really dont follow fundamentals that much, just statistics, and one statistic that I wont ignore is that once a mania ends a BEAR MARKET FOLLOWs. What we dont know is how long after the mania ends, will the BEAR MARKET start. The correlation between a mania ending and a bear market is 100% correlation, so the probability is quite high. We just dont know when. Such correlation was reported by JOHN BOLLINGER on CNBC and I have also heard that from other reliable sources.

To: Oak Tree who wrote (23724)	5/29/2000 5:13:00 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 42787

Hi Oak Tree, What I say here is not intended to pick apart your post. It just got me thinking... A bear market, as you say, is one that has poor fundamentals in addition to a downtrend of the DOW. Hmmmm.... Nope. It's when these two things don't work more than three times: 1. Buy and hold, aka "I'm A Genius". 2. Buy what moves, aka "I'm A Genius". On old squiggly lines we try to quantify it, after the fact, but the charts do not show the spirit of the market. This market has lost its spirit. We all know it, even the bulls know it. It will be a while yet before this spirit revisits us. I see nothing in these last two weeks to change my strategy: Fade the breakouts, if exuberant enough, look for cheap puts too; cover the dip. Hey, BWTHDIK. I would trade my ability to banter for 5 strokes off my game :) --Allan