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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25538)	5/29/2000 11:58:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mucho, this is not an attempt to shut down a dissenting voice, but rather an attempt to probe your assumptions and analytical model. Recently you wrote: Message 13785022 What revenue stream do you foresee that would undergird those prices/valuations? Are you including IS-95 only? Message 13785777 tekboy/Ares@curious.org

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25538)	5/30/2000 12:25:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mucho Maas, YOur premise about Qualcomm is completely different than mine. Using your premise, you're right that Qualcomm couldn't be a Gorilla. I'll try to explain mine in context of your position. Must look at entire world cellphone market, and percentage thereof which is in QC's value chain. I disagree. The fact is that the only part of the market I think you're referring to that is not a royalty game is the CDMA sector. Considering the size of the market and that Qualcomm's proprietary innovations of CDMA are discontinuous for TDMA and GSM networks, it's reasonable in my mind to think of the CDMA market as a gorilla game. Once one assumes that, it's pretty difficult to explain why Qualcomm wouldn't be the Gorilla of it. Contention of Gorilla status for QCOM ultimately rests on the assumption of a smooth transition from Chimp hegemony in IS-95 to Gorilla hegemony in W-CDMA. As I hope I clarified above, we disagree. In fact, if I understand IS-95 properly (and it's probable that I along with all the other carpetologists don't) all of IS-95 as a category is not a gorilla game. If I'm right about that, there is no chimp in it because chimps only play gorilla games, not royalty games. --Mike Buckley

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25538)	5/30/2000 6:20:00 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Mucho Maas, << This was backed up by little assumptions--about things like HDR, cdma2000 adoption, and so on >> If your assumptions included adoption of either cdma2000 or HDR (for which their was and is no standard) by GSMA carriers who developed the UMTS commitee based standard, the assumption was spurious, IMO. << Must look at entire world cellphone market >> We have not. We looked at the CDMA tornado that began in early 1998 and the company whose proprietary open architecture was essential to it. There are no gorillas in the wider world of mobile wireless telephony. Their is no proprietary open architecture, only commitee based architechture (other than Qualcomm's in the narrower world of 2G/2.5G CDMA). A case could be made for Nokia being king of handsets or for Ericcson being king of infastructure in that wider world. For the 3G world of wireless data or multimedia (no tornado yet), one must look to the CDMA air interface (whatever flavor), and whether Q IP is essential, and what the impact of that will be (as yet undetermined). I am one who believes that Q IP is essential, and that the royalty impact will be net positive. I also believe that Q will excel (perhaps dominate in DS as well as MC chip design. But that is another tornado to be examined. - Eric -