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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ig who wrote (8614)	5/30/2000 6:41:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Hi all; Somebody accidentally bot too much Sony: Cyberchump trader buys $90bn in Sony stock by mistake Sony's share price rose 6.7 per cent for three minutes because of an unfortunate blooper by an unnamed trader on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, according to a Bloomberg report. Finger trouble apparently caused someone to buy 900 million shares in the company, sending Sony surging upwards until the error was discovered. theregister.co.uk This makes my worst keyboard error seem quite mild by comparison. Re the Bear Market Rally &c. I have never seen so many people so afraid. I have to suspect that we will get a good 2 or 3 day rally, maybe even a return of the bubbly bull market. The most likely thing that the market does is return to its mean. The problem is which mean? The very long term average for securities prices which would suggest we are overpriced by 2x or more? Or the recent trend of a "permanently high plateau"? While the natural instinct of an individual is to guess that the market will return to its very long term mean, it is my observation that the when the market gets a choice between returning to a short term mean and returning to a long term trend, it chooses the short term trend the (vast) majority of the time. And in the rare cases where it does revert to the longer term mean, you usually have a chance to get out with a decent stop loss. So I say, buy those bargains, when your indicators indicate it is time to buy. At the very least be ready for a continuation in the 13-year trend rather than a reversion to the 100-year trend. Someday, the bull market will end, but the odds are against it ending on any particular day. -- Carl P.S. Who wants to own stocks between March and October, anyway?