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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (159)	5/30/2000 10:25:00 AM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

<Should you find ex-d's posts of value, feel free to read them and IGNORE mine< Ian, I'm just saying that we shouldn't try to inhibit people from posting these type of opinions. I don't think that anyone on this board can really KNOW whether the current b>b ratio includes a substantial number of double bookings or not. I don't think that there's any question that the market believes that the semi-equip group is the most cyclical of all the tech's. Moreover, given the dramatic drops that many of these company's have seen in the past six weeks(much greater percentage than the semi's themselves) there is considerable sentiment on the street that the peak of the order cycle has been reached or will be reached soon. As Zeev has pointed out its hard to believe that the current order rate can be sustained for an extended period, because it represents such a high % of semi revenues. From what I can tell there's two legitimate theories as to what' going on. The first is that this is a repeat of what happened the last time around(ex-D's); the other is that this is a peak, but, that the falloff will not be dramatic because part of this is a makeup for the extended period of very low investments by the semi's and that there is a much broader base of demand for semi's this time around. I'm inclined to the later and think the cycle could actually last into 2002, but, much has to do with interest rates and whether or not they retreat over the second half of this year. At any rate, why not hear everybody's perspectives on this?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (159)	5/30/2000 11:20:00 PM
From: Pink Minion	Respond to of 276

Speaking about the past as if it were the only reality today, doesn't add much value for anyone. Nothing is more repeatable than human behavior. Again, Ian, I DID NOT SAY DOUBLE BOOKINGS IS HAPPENING NOW. It has happened in the past and it shouldn't be too hard to figure out why it happens. ...especially if any awareness of today's reality is excluded; or worse, dismissed. Are you saying "it is different this time"? What have I dismissed? Yes, I know, demand is growing and growing. If this doesn't happen, why are all those analyst on all those conference calls talking about it? A more helpful dialogue would be based upon an analysis of what's happening now and what's likely to happen going forward. Sorry if I happened to believe one of the ways to figure out what is going to happen is the look at the past. Humans must learn from the past so they don't repeat the same mistakes. WHY IS THIS SO HARD? God gave you memory so you could accomplish this task. In the U.S., we have this drug war that is tens times worse than the 20's prohibition. The problems are like a cookie cutter to the past, and the stupid idiots can't figure it out. Just like that era created the Mafia, this era has created the gangs of the Crypts and Bloods. Way to go. I suspect something else is bothering you about me. I also suspect you are way too leveraged in this sector. Margin is great on the way up but really sucks on they way down.