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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (168)	5/31/2000 2:24:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

I've seen many contracts with penalties, although I've never seen the penalties enacted. Nobody wants to infuriate the customer when they are down, because sooner or later they will need to go back and deal with them when the coffers are full. Frankly I think that enforcing these penalties would ameliorate the double bookings, but I imagine that the only company strong enough to pull it off is AMAT. Ian's comment about CEO being equally clueless about down turns, I have found to be true (hell I'm no better so I'm not trying to knock them). The only observation I can make is that at least in the last downturn AMAT was the first to layoff employees. So maybe they are better at assessing the situation or just better run. I will throw out this comment: I remember an Analyst from one of the Swiss Banks (maybe Credit Suisse)predicting that the Maylasian currency problem would ripple across Asia and ultimately negatively impact Semiconductor/ Semi Equip companies. At that time I dismissed this as pure folly and promptly forgot his name. If anybody else noted this and knows this persons's name, I would like to proffer that we keep a closer eye on his analysis. FATBOY FATBOY

To: Pink Minion who wrote (168)	6/7/2000 10:25:00 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

Should Investors Be Alarmed by Rising Semiconductor Inventories? By Herb Greenberg Senior Columnist 6/7/00 6:29 AM ET Wednesday wallop: Semicircle: Tuesday's Hotline included an item noting that semiconductor inventories have been rising. That sparked questions: Which inventories? When? Over what time? (It was manufacturing inventories over the past three months.) It also prompted a very senior Wall Street tech analyst who agreed to talk only on background (his employer wouldn't be pleased to see his name here) to share his insights. He added up days of inventories at the top seven North American contract manufacturers and calculated that they climbed to 55 days in March of this year from 49 days in December and 43 days in March 1999. Why the rise? Each company, he muses, has a different explanation, but the gist of it is that they've accelerated their purchases to deal with component shortages. In light of dropping PC demand, that explanation doesn't wash with this analyst, who says, "It's surprising people aren't more concerned yet." The reason for rising inventories, the one the bulls are likely to scream to me in emails today (stop, please don't!), is that the contract manufacturers are now all shifting to making cell phones. Whatever.