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To: John Hull who wrote (103805)	5/31/2000 1:13:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John, A curious fact of life that market research firms almost always include a declining rate of growth in their forecasts. I made a similar observation about economists. The British magazine Economists polls economists around the world about their predictions for GDP growth rates of industrial countries. They have a prediction for 1 and 2 years out. Economist then takes the average. It has been my observation that any country growing faster than about 2.8% has a prediction of it's growth slowing and any country growing slower than that will have a prediction of accelerated growth. Joe

To: John Hull who wrote (103805)	5/31/2000 3:24:00 PM
From: denni	Respond to of 186894

>>A curious fact of life that market research firms almost always include a declining rate of growth in their forecasts. Large-number phobia prevents us from accepting an increasing growth rate....I'm not asserting that the forecast is necessarily incorrect, just that the habit is prevalent. regards, jh<< well said!

To: John Hull who wrote (103805)	6/1/2000 4:35:00 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

John, RE: "A curious fact of life that market research firms almost always include a declining rate of growth in their forecasts." The reverse pressures apply to ETs, which I'm sure you know RE: "Large-number phobia prevents us from accepting an increasing growth rate" Sounds like a reverse trend to the infamous hockey stick RE: "I'm not asserting that the forecast is necessarily incorrect" You can't, but I can, and I base my assertion on Intel's comment about having a "huge demand" and my observation that Intel has a tendency to outperform other semi's RE: "just that the habit is prevalent." As I'm sure you know, it depends upon the stage of the industry - not an apparent trend in ET (emerging technologies) Demand is huge according to Intel per the shareholder's meeting. Not sure why that isn't apparent in the market research material, or why there seems to be a disconnect between Intel execs and the market research firms? I'll put my bet on Intel and maybe pick up some leaps. Amy J