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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25715)	6/2/2000 10:10:00 AM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

So I'll give the nod to the two of you regarding the Godzilla tornado and take no credit for myself. (I'm not always that generous so run with it while you can!) I'm a Fool, so I won't argue with Merlin. Of course should this little twister poof out in a hurry I will of course spread the credit far and wide for this little call;). I'm still confused about the growth of guide revenue and am unwilling to declare a tornado in that segment of the business until the confusion is eliminated. I've looked even closer at those figures. Without the $22 million in arbitration revenues this quarter there would clearly not be a Tornado here. I am uncertain as to how GMST is recognizing these revenues. Recognized as they arrive and therefore forward stuffing the numbers, or will they restate prior quarters, or just how they are doing it. Thus, it is difficult to properly allocate those revenues and derive any fair Q to Q comparison to get an accurate storm forecast. Also, I took a look at BBRS licensing rev estimates. Their projected growth is not bad if your a growing department store chain; actually quite good for such a business. Not anywhere close to a Tornado however. Perhaps it is the "forward stuffing" nature of the arbitration revenues which is creating the illusion of the licensing revenue Tornado. It does seem somewhat clear that recognized licensing revenues did grow more than 100% yoy as VCR+ revs are growing in the high single digits, with 10% yoy at the top and GMST has no other significant revenue streams - assuming BBRS call of guide and VCR+ revs bein about = this q. If this were any other company I'd contact investor relations and try to get the answers. This being GMST I won't waste my time. Tinker Oh, P.S. did I mention RALLLLLLLLLLLYYYYY! Hope those grumbly bears up on Yosemite get a sniff of this. Feeling that wealth effect again! :)

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25715)	6/2/2000 10:54:00 AM
From: pann1128	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: GMST twin tornado sighting Quick couple of points: 1. I need to check this out, but as I remember, in the Dec. quarter, GMST had a EPG installed base of 2M. At the end of the March quarter the installed base is 3M. Would this be a better way to track the potential tornado than try and figure out revenue numbers coming from EPG? 2. Can you actually have an advertising tornado without an EPG tornado? My understanding is that the ad revenues are from ads on the EPG. Since both you and tinker are in agreement that the ad revenue tornado is upon us, that would imply that the EPG tornado is also upon us. Am I off base here? Thanks for the great analysis from you and Tinker. Piyush

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25715)	6/2/2000 11:02:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

RE: Is Gemstar in both a gorilla game and a godzilla game? Are we still dancing that dance we all danced back in March on the zilla or rilla or both question? I remain unchanged about my stance, as Mike says, that Gemstar's advert revenue is indeed derived from the structure of a godzilla game. Not only was that revenue quite handsome in the earnings report for the previous quarter, but the potential of that to explode going forward remains one of the most compelling reasons for an investment in this company. We should all be drooling for Gemstar's base to reach that magical number the advertising companies consider the 'pivot' point to commit in a big way by the end of this year. That's when we will see some numbers. This is, of course, a separate entity from the gorilla game that Gemstar is participating. I will concur that the synergy between the two can and probably will fuel as well as feed upon each other. This will also extend to the electronic book/magazine/news/media platform as well. From my study of the Godzilla based model, I would be cautious about equating the significance of early hypergrowth within a godzilla business model to hypergrowth within a gorilla based model at this point in Gemstar's technology adoption life cycle. In other words, the rules and criteria of the two games are so unique and different that I see little value in drawing parallels. Hypergrowth can ramp fast and quick at an earlier point in the 'cycle' for a godzilla game. The criteria almost demands that for survival. Yet, the synergy between the two might be an impressive glue for Gemstar's long term success. Here's what might be a nice article which I'm going to skim: biz.yahoo.com BB

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (25715)	6/2/2000 2:21:00 PM
From: Lynn Goodman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

QCOM discussion on CNBC: At 2:10 p.m., SSB and Paine Weber analysts were interviewed re wireless, very positive on Q. Noted that $60B in wireless contracts in Europe will benefit Q by 5% royalty stream. Both said they thought Q would benefit from China, whether immediately or down the road. No negative comments at all. Q year end targets, SSB $150-200, PW-$250. General comment on the sector: "I would buy this entire sector right now." Good stuff, whatever one thinks about CNBC. Mike, heartiest congratulations. Lynn