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Gold/Mining/Energy : Pacific North West Capital Corporation-PFN on Alberta -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumell who wrote (1709)	6/2/2000 1:09:00 PM
From: RICK	Respond to of 2255

Hi Brumell, Posted at SH I will try to distill some more stuff from the Johnson Matthey report Platinum/2000. The report also deals with palladium, and other PGMs. Gokhran is the name for the Russian stock of precious metals and gems and is part of the Ministry of Finance. Norilsk Nickel produces most of Russia's PGMs as a byproduct of nickel mining. Remember of course that Russian antics with platinum are not so serious because they supply only 24% of world demand (in 1999). Exports of platinum from Russia in 1999 were fouled up by a clause which prevented Norlisk Nickel from selling any platinum produced that year. Despite this, several large amounts of platinum were shipped from Russia during 1999 and it is supposed that these must have come from the stockpile controlled by Gorkhran. So it is believed that Gorkhran's stocks of platinum, which were regularly used to boost sales through the 1990s, are almost exhausted. Norlisk Nickel presumably is now in the position of having a stockpile of one years production in hand which they could dump on the market. Although the Russians did a stupid thing like that some years ago and nearly ruined the diamond market, most observers say that they are unlikely to be shoot themselves in the feet with platinum sales this time. The Russian palladium story is different and much more confusing. Remember also that they supply 67% (in 1999) of world demand so they are in the cat bird seat, no doubt about it. During the past six years demand for palladium has more than doubled and sales from Russian reserves to make up the shortfall in supply have amounted to 16 million oz. All information on PGM production and stockpiles is secret so we are only able to guess at how much the Russians have still stashed away by observing how they behave and trying to transalate their doublespeak. For many years, palladium produced by Norilsk but not exported was owned and stored by Gokhran. Much of this palladium was sold to the Russian Central Bank to raise funds for the government. It has been suggested that some of this palladium has been tied up in collateral deals with western banks. Russian shipments of palladium were apparently clocking along through 1999 and in March it was announced that Boris Yeltsin had signed a presidential decree giving Norilsk Nickel a ten year export quota. Then early this year you may remember the hilarious reports from Russia about Putin's decree and the crackpot explanations for delays in signing this decree. Was the jump in price to over $800 per oz. just due to speculators or did someone know something? I think that the announcement that Gokhran is suspending sales of all PGMs may not be at all important, and that the Russians are tossing us a few stale crumbs. Certainly, the market has treated it as a non-event. It looks like Gokhran has zero PGMs in their stockpile anyway so they are suspending nothing but hot air. The crucial question is how much palladium Norilsk Nickel and the Russian Central bank have stashed away. It is my suspicion that they don't have all that much. I base this opinion on several observations including these: (1)Recent announcements by GM and Nissan that they were going to switch back to platinum. Who were they trying to kid, and did you note how swiftly the platinum price popped up after the announcements? (2)The very fact that PGM exploration is booming and the jabbering on message boards like this one is hopping along so vigorously indicates that someone is worried that the Russian palladium spigot is soon going to close down.

To: Brumell who wrote (1709)	6/2/2000 1:19:00 PM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2255

Well PFN is looking to break out of its downtrend here. I might climb on. Yes the ELH fiasco. Hmm. Blew out all my HTP at a gain this AM. I was in at 2.50 avg. Out most at 2.90 Where's it goin how much water. Why cant I get hold of anyone at any of the companies involved in the play? Andy