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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JC Jaros who wrote (45878)6/2/2000 8:04:00 PM
From: mozek  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 74651
 
JC,
I can understand how you could make that assessment of Andy's opinion, but I really disagree. Let me suggest another view of reality. I believe it to be true based on my personal experience.

Scott McNealy is a great salesman. He smoothly articulates a future of possibilities that are not necessarily pioneered at Sun. Bill Joy's a real idea man, but he's doing some very esoteric stuff, and is probably considered a loose canon after his recent claim that the Unabomber made some really good points. Sun can lay claim to some great ideas, but they claim responsibility for many that are not their own. If you believe that Scott McNealy is honest, then they may be as you describe. I believe otherwise based on my experiences.

Scott invokes Java as the enabling secret sauce for any magical possibility, whether or not Sun thought of it or their progress is complete vapor. The irony is that if it were up to him, Java would have been cancelled when it was still referred to as Oak.

Unfortunately, Java's not a real secret sauce. It's a good, VM-based execution system that works well in a number of applications. Other execution systems such as UCSD-P, Oberon, or versions of Modula introduced the same features. The difference is that these other solutions weren't marketed with the salesmanship and desperation of Scott McNealy saving his business.

When Sun's workstation business started losing major share to Microsoft, Sun did a great job transforming their image from a high-end, but exhorbitantly priced Unix workstation and server vendor into a benevolent provider of community Java, here to save everyone from the tyranny of Microsoft and Intel. They've put a huge amount of money and energy into both vilifying Microsoft and Intel (or whoever else Scott doesn't like today) and promoting any alternative they can to lock you into, based on Sun proprietary technology, Java. They promote these solutions under the guise of "thin client", "network computer", etc. They also continue to maintain a 100% monopoly on Java and the right to exploit Java at any time they choose. Funny how they do this while accusing Microsoft of just such a thing.

The fact is that whether you're talking Windows, WinCE, Java OS, QnX, Linux, or any other operating environment, those things referred to as "thin clients" have CPUs, memory, display, network connection, usually a hard drive, and always an operating system. The only thing that really makes them a, quote, "thin client", is that they don't run Microsoft software. If you don't think Microsoft is working on lightweight devices and software services deliverd through them, you may not have been paying attention. "Thin client" is a marketing term that might as well have a little tm near it, and to that extent, it's meaningless.

Early on, Sun made a significant mistake. Underestimating Microsoft's ability to innovate and execute (I realize there are counterexamples), they licensed Microsoft to not only distribute, as most licensees, but to modify and enhance Java. From Microsoft's first version of Java in IE 3.0, Microsoft's implementation was ahead of Sun's in perf, backward compatibility, and reliability by about 2 years. I say that because quantitatively, it took Sun about that long to catch up after they Sued. Actually, IBM was the first company to beat Microsoft's VM after 2 years, though I don't know if they still do. Interestingly, a significant architectural technique Sun used for performance was first invented at Microsoft and incorporated by Sun when they finally shipped a performant system.

Under the umbrella of Java, Scott and co. work feverishly to lay claim to any standards they can implement in Java and get pushed through some committee. Sun has a lot of people working to steamroll Java into as many facets of your life as possible. Believe me, this isn't about benevolence. At the same time, Sun refuses to license Java to the standards bodies on the same terms as other intellectual property. None of the standards bodies or their participants are allowed to enhance their Java implementations unless and until Sun gives them permission. What a deal! They legally prevent anyone from moving faster than they can and always stay ahead! Is that the way to promote innovation?

Sun has overhyped and oversold Java and themselves, and they have done it well. They pushed hard after the first Jackson ruling was overturned to get Java included as part of the DOJ suit. They were working with Jim Barksdale about the time Jim was receiving Joel Klein for breakfasts at his house. Remember, that was just prior to the DOJ's suit. When the first Jackson ruling was overturned, they pushed hard to add Java issues to the lawsuit, even using depositions and declarations from the Java lawsuit.

The reality is that Sun is trying to do just what they accuse Microsoft of doing. They have also done everything they can to use the legal system to slow down Microsoft for their own gain, often at taxpayers expense.

You can continue to believe in the goodness of Sun. When Microsoft comes back, and it will, it will be a good day for consumers and much harder for Sun and their ilk to impose governers on their competition.

Just another perspective for your consideration.

Thanks,
Mike



To: JC Jaros who wrote (45878)6/2/2000 9:00:00 PM
From: Andy Thomas  Respond to of 74651
 
--There's enough revenue to be had just from the back end (like Cisco) enabling ubiquitous devices (true enablement).---

absolutely... that's the new paradigm...

--- I think too your characterization of Sun's involvement in the DoJ action as some sort of sour grapes or outside the bounds of fair play is extremely simplistic. -JCJ---

fair enough... hey are you winning a 'convert?' -g-

andy



To: JC Jaros who wrote (45878)6/2/2000 9:01:00 PM
From: Andy Thomas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
i still think that the msft 1.0 java jit kicked a**....