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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mmbw who wrote (25762)	6/3/2000 2:19:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

In science we have to do many experiments before we can convince anybody. Doctors are perpetually annoyed by anecdotes about some wonder drug tried on three people. You went through uneasiness and you were lucky. That's one experiment. If you could consistently do this you would become a billionaire sooner than you can imagine. The only person that ever actually became a billionaire by passively investing in stocks never thought he could know what the market would do in the short term. Mike Buckley put it very well. By knowing that one can't time the market he puts himself in a minority. Only a minority make big money in the stock market. A MAJORITY OF PEOPLE SELL AT OR NEAR BOTTOMS OR TEMPORARY TOPS because they think they can predict price movements. I have strong confidence that if you were to continue trying to jump off and jump back on, you would eventually wind up quite unhappy. You only have a certain time to spend on the stock market. Why not use it studying the companies and their technology rather than stock prices?

To: mmbw who wrote (25762)	6/3/2000 3:08:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

I was uneasy not holding stocks I believed in Exactly. Good point. I am not sure I will go through all of that again It's a lot of work, for which you gained marginally--but also increased your "opportunity risk" (is that an acceptable term?) substantially. Did you have an indication that this past week's runup might occur about now? I certainly did not--and would conclude that your gain was "lucky", as you say. It's hard to stay fully invested, isn't it? I am amazed that Mike Buckley has been able to stay with such a small selection of stocks, without changing his position, for so long. I have not been able to stick so long with all my stocks, while the ones I have stuck with have been the best performers.

To: mmbw who wrote (25762)	6/4/2000 4:33:00 AM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Well done in my opinion.I was attending a business gathering at the British Embassy this morning.I ran in to a friend of mine who,I had not seen for a couple of years.He used to work for M.lynch and now works for a swiss investment bank in Geneva and handles some clients in the Middle East.As it goes without saying there were a number of us who started discussing the US Stock Market.I was honest enough to admit how I took a serious knock in the last 2 months.I also rationalized my holding through out April/May that they will come back. A few interesting comments he made.In Normal market Conditions that is very true,however these are extreme markets and speculation at its worst that he can remember(stocks dropping 50 points in one week and regaining it the next week).I asked him what criteria he uses for selecting companies and entry and exit points.His first response was FA of sectors and FA of individual securities.TA of general market for entry and exit points.He said he only Uses TA to gauge the market and not individual securities.He also stated that he uses other indicators i.e. Money Flow,interest rates,Dollar exchange rates,economy etc.etc. He asked me what I viewed as long term and I replied 10 years.He said one of the main reasons those tools are being utilized now a days is that people say that they are long term investors but in reality they are short term.He said most of his clients view 5 years as very long term and expect high returns.He also pointed that the 90s being a secular bull market has changed people perception of investing.Every one wants the quick rich approach. He also pointed out that the true metal of long term investors is tested if you go into a bear market where you don't have huge drops but the index losses 20 to 30 points a week for a prolonged period of 2 to 3 years and most people can't take the slow bleeding and check out because job losses are frequent and people start liquidating stock positions to cover their expenses and at many instances sell at the lows. His last words were to diversify some of my investment in the form of Bonds and CD's from my profits on stocks.I know it sounds boring and old fashioned but It does make sense. The lesson I took from our conversation was,before any one decides to be LTB&H investor(10 years minimum was his words),you should prepare for the worst and have adequate reserves set aside.