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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5230)	6/4/2000 11:48:00 AM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

The King has no clothes!! JohnG carranza2 who wrote (11467) From: Clark Hare Sunday, Jun 4, 2000 11:30 AM ET Reply # of 11473 First confirmation from within the DS camp that Japanese rollout is really a trial: ragingbull.com This comes from a reliable poster on the IDCC boards after a talk with the CEO of IDCC after their recent Annual Shareholder Mtg. Key points: 1) Japanese 'rollout' will be with Brassboards in order to allow for changes. Brassboard is terminology used in the RF engineering world to refer to non-production test units built to verify design and to allow ease of modification. Almost by definition RF brassboards even include some 'customized' FPGAs which allow the the designers to rapidly change circuitry. These FPGAs are often referred to by their manufacturers (e.g. Xilinx) as 'ASICs', and this allows the users (e.g. NTT) to claim that they have ASICs. But they are not real custom ASICs. The same ASICs might be used from everything to DS-CDMA to MC to satellite terminal RF applications. They trade reprogramability of the circuitry for very high power draw and slow speed. Although I have always predicted that this is approximately what DoCoMo meant when they said 'rollout', it is always nice to have confirmation from within the camp. To repeat what I have said before, I would expect real rollouts of DS to be at least 1 to 2 years after Japanese 'rollout' while I expect MC-1X to really rollout 1H next year. 2) If you trace backwards from the above post, Japan apparently still claims that their version of DS is not European, but uniquely Japanese. There are probably still some political battles happening inside the standardization process. I don't know what this means for the DS spec which was agreed upon last month, but I'd expect this to continue to slow up deployment and universality (the latter of which is supposed to be the great thing about DS). As usual, the IDCC posters are great information hounds. Clark

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5230)	6/4/2000 11:51:00 AM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 34857

The GPRS brain cookers will never make it is China. Test them first on the Fins!! JohnG China tests phones for magnetic radiation. Purpose is to likit radiation from phones made in China. I suppose this will raise serious questions about GPRS if it is proposed for China. JOhnG chinadaily.com.cn.net. China tests cellular phones for magnetic radiation (06/3/2000) Chinese industry authorities issued certificates today on levels of magnetic radiation emitted from Motorola China and Qingdao Haier cellular phones. This is the first time that China conducted magnetic tests on cellular phone products and issued certificates. The move is designed to limit the level of magnetic radiation of electronic devices produced in China. (Xinhua)

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5230)	6/4/2000 11:53:00 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

... Nokia-backed initiatives like GPRS are sweeping 100-plus mobile operators around the world. I didn't know Nokia was in the sauna rock business. :-)

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5230)	6/4/2000 1:23:00 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

Tero, << What your "King" and "Gorilla" nomikers for Nokia and Qualcomm can't explain is the current standardization situation >> First let me say that I am not here to spread the gospel of "Gorilla Gaming", an investment theory that I subscribe, and attempt to interpret rather literally, in choosing candidates for my portfolio. I discuss that on another thread dedicated to that theory. Since you asked I will respond, however. The current standardization situation is at the root of determining the primate or royalty status of Nokia and Qualcomm, however. My thoughts on this subject were recently expressed in the post linked below (and you might be interested in reading the Chasm Group presentation, Standards and the Gorilla Game: The Dynamics Of Setting Standards In High-Tech Markets, linked therin: Message 13790458 << NMT-450 replacement: Qualcomm's CDMA alternative is about to be eviscarated by Nokia/Ericsson-backed GSM-400 >> I am not as current as I should be on CDMA 400. Will ETSI incorporate Nokia/Ericsson-backed GSM-400? I would think so. What else is new. Will CDMA 400 be deployed? I suspect so. << Satellite telephony: Qualcomm's attempt to create a global standard, Globalstar, is headed to bankruptcy court by next winter. Nokia stayed out and concentrated on leadership in DSL and W-LAN. What do you think - which was the smart move? >> I question the "bankruptcy court by next winter", although I have stayed away from any direct investments in satellite telephony. Too early. What think thee of AcES? I personally think that Nokia might get their lunch eaten in DSL and W-LAN, but we shall see. << 3G: Unicom's decision means W-CDMA for China >> What is W-CDMA???????? Nokia is into committee-based standards and architecture remember. << No commercial IS-95 networks = no 1XRTT, no HDR, no cdma2000. Both Unicom and China Telecom will migrate to W-CDMA via GPRS >> I think you are counting your chickens before they hatch again, like you did on DDI. << W-CDMA can deliver GSM/W-CDMA dualmode handsets - something that cdma200 can't do in volume and variety, since leading handset manufacturers have no plans for GSM/cdma2000 dualmode phones >> Well, Nokia might not. Others will and are already working on them. When do you project a commercial version GSM/UTRA dualmode handset from Nokia? What data rate do you expect on the UTRA side on this date. <<China is going to demand dualmode phones compatible with GSM from any 3G technology from day one >> As they have since 1996 when they along with a major handset manufacturer and SIM provider started writing the CDMA SIM spec recently approved by TIA (which changes the game significantly, taking global interoperability out of the equation in the near future, I don't mean to oversimplify here). Dualmode phones available Q4, which probably means Q1 01. << I think we both know what this augurs for Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Brazil, etc. >> For the moment, I think it is best to treat Brazil separately from Korea, Australia, and Hong Kong. Depending on how Anatel decides this month, either you will be happy, or I will be happy. Australia is VERY interesting right now. Korea? This is pretty current on SK Telecom (March 29, 2000): cdg.org Note: Slide 16 addresses "IMT-MC to build upon IS-2000 network" and "DS-41 system to bridge existing CDMA technology with IMT-DS (enhanced global roaming)", and slide 17 addresses Deploying IS-2000 network capable of supporting IMT-MC/DS. Things could still change there relative to cdg.org << 2G: GSM was consolidating its grip on Russia and India even before the China news >> Once again, you are interpreting the China news from your own perspective, again. Best recent article I have seen is: chinaonline.com << Your view of Qualcomm as a Gorilla is contradicted by Qualcomm's persistent inability to get its grand dreams actually implemented >> You are reading a different version of cellular history than I am? << In contrast, Nokia-backed initiatives like GPRS are sweeping 100-plus mobile operators around the world. >> To their credit. GPRS will indeed be very commercially successful. The more I read about GPRS however, the more I wonder what kind of mess Nokia, and the GSM community have gotten themselves into. Rolling out 2 dissimilar packet switched air interfaces almost concurrently is going to be lots of fun and will occupy a great deal of Nokias time, hindering their chances of success in development of IP Networks. << Nokia's real power lies in genuine standardization muscle >> Yes. In ETSI and 3GPP and UMTS Forum, and perhaps to some degree in UWCC. << Something Qualcomm has now proven it lacks >> No. To the contrary. Magnificent success in ITU and they have their own committees, TIA and 3GPP2. Also working nicely with OHG. << Q a Gorilla, while Nokia does not make the grade even after sweeping the board in the standardization game? >> Committee-based standards. Sorry but this makes them a royalty play, not a primate. A very noble wireless Prince (and arguably "King" of handsets. Nothing wrong with royalty (just need to be held loosely). JDSU is a great King. Dell was a grand prince. No QCOM content in GPRS. But ... 1x will be rolling out right after GPRS and it appears will be faster and more efficient. It certainly looks like a much more streamlined migration path than GSM operators face and remember Qualcomm gets paid on all 3 modes of wideband CDMA approved by the ITU. Oh yes, Nokia invented UTRA. A fact that has escaped historians. There is no reason (for me) to think that they will not be very successful in the DS & TDD chip game as well as the MS side. That does remain to be seen, however. As for standardization. I do believe that CDG & QCOM will eventually participate in 3GPP. That will happen when Qualcomm management thinks it is time. Proprietary open architectures have their place in this world and the companies that control the enabling technologies reward their stockholders. that is the essence of "The Gorilla Game". - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5230)	6/4/2000 8:17:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero, << NMT-450 replacement: Qualcomm's CDMA alternative is about to be eviscarated by Nokia/Ericsson-backed GSM-400 >> As I commented earlier I have not been following the NMT MoU activity too closely. Perhaps you could expand a bit on this pending evisceration? You have peaked my interest. First, do I have this correct. EMC for GSMA is forecasting 1.2 million GSM subscribers by 2005. That would make this something of a small evisceration, would it not? Last I knew the NMT MoU members voted last Fall to accept two digital mobile telephony standards - CDMA and GSM. Has this changed? I also am aware that ETSI has agreed to publish a GSM standard for the NMT 450 market, but I don't think as a regulatory matter The NMT operators are bound to it. Has this changed? In addition to that since the European Union doesn't control Eastern Europe, where many operators are evaluating CDMA technology, the barriers that exist in the EU are diminished, or do I have that wrong? I'm also under the impression that Westel will be trialing CDMA 450 in Hungary with Infra from Lucent and that there is conjecture that by 2001 a 1XRTT CDMA 450 system will be capable of roaming with existing GSM networks. Perhaps I have this incorrect. The Nokia/Ericsson duopoly probably is in a position to exert considerable pressure on the regulatory bodies and telecommunications ministries. It will be interesting to see if the EU mandates ETSI to standardize all technologies the ITU has selected for 3G. The world is getting smaller and more harmonized. - Eric -