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To: Road Walker who wrote (104002)6/5/2000 1:17:00 PM
From: Tony Viola  Respond to of 186894
 
John, >Still the last I heard from Osha is that he's not high on Intel because he expects a second half price war, though he hasn't said that recently.

John, as you know, with both Intel and AMD sold out (that message seems to get moved out a quarter every quarter, still intact) a price war should no way be in the cards.

I've been paying attention to ML upgrades and the effects. In most cases it results in a one day pop, then a decline to the previous level, or lower. In fact, I think the influence of analyst upgrades may be waning,

Maybe my mantra, that all the free information on the Internet will ultimately make analysts redundant, is starting to happen.

Tony



To: Road Walker who wrote (104002)6/5/2000 3:02:00 PM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
John, RE: I've been paying attention to ML upgrades and the effects. In most cases it results in a one day pop, then a decline to the previous level, or lower. In fact, I think the influence of analyst upgrades may be waning, though downgrades still seem to have an effect. I think the zenith of the analyst influence may have been when the guy came out with a $1000 (pre-split) target on QCOM. I think investors (wisely) are starting to discount the target price B.S. and to realize a lot of these folks have other agendas.

Actually, the power of analysts to move stocks and help formulate public opinion is a very recent phenomena that closely parallels the greater individual presence in the market.

Prior to this new public presence, analysts for the most part did not move markets much. There were exceptions in the case where that rare sharp analyst may have a better insight than most, but by and large, the analyst effect was very much like you say it is now becoming. Similarly, target prices were irrelevant for years before the mania of the past year or couple of years.

My guess is that the individual investors now have learned what the professional investors already knew.



To: Road Walker who wrote (104002)6/6/2000 12:42:00 AM
From: Joe NYC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
John,

And if Arthur Levitt (Chairman, SEC) get's his way on selective disclosure of material information, the analysts influence will decline even more. I'm all for that.

I have not followed this issue, but it sounds interesting. I definitely resent companies disclosing information to analysts, while withholding it from public. There is no excuse for that in the Internet age.

Joe