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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gnuman who wrote (43580)	6/6/2000 2:15:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

I want to thank S.G. Cowen and CNBC for creating the buying opportunity this morning. :)

To: gnuman who wrote (43580)	6/6/2000 2:18:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 93625

Which way is the wind blowing? by: ptnewell 6/6/00 1:50 pm Msg: 102312 of 102318 To see trends, it is useful to compare how the positions of major players evolve over months. This compares positions from circa February 2000 (when Intel demonstrated the RMBS-only Williamette at the IDF) to current positions. A. Chipset Makers Intel then: (officially) RDRAM is the future for desktops. DDR might be best for servers. A version of the Williamette for servers called "Foster" will be introduced in 2000 using DDR. (unofficially) Same. Intel now: (officially) RDRAM is the future for desktops. Both the Williamette and the Foster are being sampled with RDRAM only (according to the Register). No explanation for the change has been given. INTC refuses to say whether a DDR chipset is still under development (according to Cnet news). (unofficially): The head of chipset design stated that he had "no DDR chipsets under development". theregister.co.uk AMD then: (officially) DDR is the memory of the future. Chipsets will be available later in 2000. No RDRAM plans. (unofficially) Same. AMD now: (officially) DDR is still on the roadmap. HotRail has abandoned work on a DDR server for AMD, purportedly to pursue "communications opportunities". AMD "demonstrated" a DDR system in April at WinHec, but refused to allow anyone to benchmark the system or provide benchmarks. No samples are available for OEMs to examine. No new time table for when DDR might appear has been given. RDRAM chipset is now under development (according to a Dogpatch article), but "RDRAM is not a high priority for us." (unofficially) Urgently hiring RDRAM engineers, based on numerous advertisements. Via then: It was widely reported that Via and others would have 266 MHz DDR chipsets available, first early in 2000, later by the rollout of AMD?s Thunderbird in June. As late as May, 2000, certain publications were reporting as fact that DDR chipsets from third parties would appear in June to support the Thunderbird. Via now: (Officially) supports DDR. Has no plans for RDRAM. Very little official commentary or guidance provided. (unofficially): A interview with a company official reported in the Chinese language version of Yahoo business news stated an RDRAM chipset would be developed. An equally dubious denial appeared the next day on an unofficial site unconnected with Via. (Note: Via is being sued by INTC. The latter hopes to regain control of its Front Side Bus designs, and thus limit competition on chipsets for INTC processors). II. Memory Makers The two largest and most important DRAM manufacturers are Samsung and Micron. Samsung has been more successful, but Micron is believed to have greater production capacity. Samsung then: (officially) supports all memory types, including RDRAM and DDR. (unofficially) Web site whitepaper makes it obvious that Samsung believes RDRAM is superior. usa.samsungsemi.com Samsung now: (officially) Supports all memory types, but is concentrating on RDRAM currently. Intended to up production from 2 million (128 megabit) units per month to 10 million at the end of the year. After Intel ordered replacements for 820 motherboards with SDRAM, Samsung announced the increase in production would be immediate. (unofficial) Repeatedly stated that RDRAM is their most lucrative product. This seems to be confirmed by first quarter results in which profits quadrupled from previous year, from 45 million to 170 million. RDRAM and flash memory were responsible for nearly all the increase (no further breakdown was given). Micron then: (officially) supports all memory types. Expects to start shipping DDR for PCs in volume in one or two months. Will support RDRAM when demand warrants. DDR has stability problems, but those will be quickly solved. (unofficially) Does not believe RDRAM will ever be significant. eet.com "Although the company expects to hit volume production within the next few months, the current designs are still showing bugs. Klein said the DDR chips still suffer from reference voltage leakage and asymmetrical data eyes, which are lowering operating speeds. The chips run at 133 MHz, but those speeds are not yet stable. " (which could explain why no DDR chipsets have appeared). Micron now: (officially) "DDR rocks". Volume production will start soon, possibly as soon as fall 2000. Will produce RDRAM this year, but "it could be as little as 4% of our total 2000 DRAM production." Although disparagingly intended, it can be interpreted positively for Rambus. Since Micron had 0% RDRAM production in the first half, it seems to imply RDRAM will be 8% or higher for the second half of 2000. Other memory manufacturers: Hyundai, which in January 2000 made many statements that RDRAM had no future, began production in Febraury. Plans to significantly increase production of 128 megabit RDRAM units (where the market premium is high), but not 64 megabit RDRAM (where premium is smaller). The NEC-Hitachi memory consortium has made conflicting statements (Hitachi is being sued by Rambus). Toshiba is upping RDRAM production, but so far it is all going to non-PC sources. III. Major Box-Builders Dell then: (officially) The largest PC maker is the most enthusiastic for RMBS. "RDRAM is the memory of the future." Dell was the only PC maker to buy huge quantities of RDRAM, and got the cheapest price (supposedly an initial 60% premium to SDRAM, declining thereafter. Other OEMs bought far less, and paid double the SDRAM price, or even higher). (unofficially) same. Dell now: Latest results show Dell with its first strong quarter in about 2 years. High end desktops (mostly RDRAM) and especially workstations (all RDRAM) dominated. The RDRAM only workstation line up surged 86% is sales, year over year, and constituted an incredible ~1/3 of the profits. Dell is pursuing an aggressive strategy of moving RDRAM steadily down throughout the lineup. Most Dell RDRAM computers sell for less that comparable SDRAM computers from other vendors. (Note: RMBS support is strongest with the number ones in each segment, namely Intel, Samsung, Dell. It is weakest with the minor players.) Other box-builders are increasing their RDRAM line up, but more slowly. All plan to enthusiastically support the RDRAM only Williamette. Compaq is building a high-powered server (the sucessor to the powerful Digital "Alpha") which uses RDRAM. HP is second to Dell in adopting RDRAM into its lineup. A recent response by Gateway to questions about RDRAM and DDR are typical of other box builders. Gateway currently supports RDRAM only in one model, its highest end desktop machine. It has no plans for further models until the Williamette is introduced, which it plans to support. It has no plans for a DDR model, but is "watching market conditions and developments carefully." This clearly seems to indicate that no DDR chipsets from third parties are immenient, else Gateway would be aware of them. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------