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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zwolff who wrote (32190)	6/6/2000 4:51:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

Novell buyout value (1) The Netware franchise (2) Net Services (directory based apps) (3) Internet Operating system Item (1) is 600 million in revenue plus entry into virtually every corporation in the world, with a mature product for managing corporate networks. Item (2) is a complete series of internet infrastructure products based upon a scalable mature directory product. Plumbing compares very favorably to any technology coming from internet start-ups. Relationships with many industry players in B2B and eCommerce. Item (3) is Drew Major's IOS initiatives --- caching, filtering, storage, etc. Compares favorably to Inktomi etc. Embraces Akamai. Has all the IOS pieces to be heads and shoulders above any other OS for the internet. Value of above --- $50 a share in stock. Item 1 & 2 for HP, IBM, SUNW. ITem 3 for LU, CSCO, Nortel. Favored approach merger and then spin-off of IOS group. Time Frame: August Alternative: Company surprises the analysts with unexpected revenue gains in Q3. ============== Why do I think the poison pill isn't going to come into play? Because everyone benefits from a good merger. Schmidt is vindicated as CEO and continues in the industry. Drew gets to build a non-legacy Novell. The management get options that are worth something sooner rather than much later. The BOD do well for the institutions. Utah keeps its engineering environment and gets a deep pocket partner with more niche dominance. Why will it not happen? Only inertia. Any energy, put into either making Novell prove the analysts wrong by making the divisions viable and building back revenues more quickly, or, in making a buy-out happen, moves things forward. McNealy understands that Novell's eDirectory approach works. He knows that Intels next generation processors are coming around the corner. IBM knows that Novell is a big enterprise win for its sales team. HP knows it needs something more to stay in the action with SunW. Lu and CSCO and Nortel can just imagine what Drew's group is cooking up. Let the bidding begin.