To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1973 ) 6/9/2000 6:19:00 PM From: zbyslaw owczarczyk Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3891
Salomon Smith Barney on Alcatel, 06/09/2000 Positive Feedback from Supercommm the worlds largest telecom equipment exhibition based on comments form ALA C.Reinaudo, president of ALA Optics. *ALA won two major submarine contracts with Level 3 Comm and Flag Telecom. Alcatel dominate submarine market. Expect to see more big orders this year. Accidentally Nortel who sold submarine business are now interested in getting back into this business. *two major DWDM contracts each for more then 100 million US with Global Photon System in California- connecting major cities in CA. ALA will also maintain and operate network. The second with VSP Comm. ( in US) for high speed DWDM voice and date in eastern part of US . This contract is worth several million $ US This contracts confirm ALA worldwide No1 position in transport, in optical networking and submarine system *Reinaudo admitted that ALA missed the boat on 10 Gbit systems , but have made quantum leap to 40 Gbit and have several key customers evaluation this technology. Of course absolute No1 position in both xDSL and LMDS , after addition of Newbridge. ( now call Newbridge-Alcatel and they had they won boot on Supercom, which was dominated by ALA. It was difficult to get in . This is from my friend who attended Supercom) * IN terns of future technology they were showing big all optical cross connect using Agilent switching technology were other vendors were showing cross connects using micro mirror technology. Conclusion: Alcatel looks increasingly cheap compared to its US peers. ALA is leading in key technologies , including optical , have more open management .Our (Salomaon SB) target price is under review my note: in early May SSB had conservative price target of 58 US...... ------------------------------ Below is translated( from French) comments from Lehman Brothers: Friday June 9 2000, 16h37 ALCATEL continues to go up thanks to a rain of contracts Alcatel (Paris: 13000.PA - topicality ) does not finish any any more going up. The title allocates 2,88 more % to 66 euros today towards 16h30. This carries its progression to 67 % since its low annual of April 5. It is true that on the level of its results, the group does not disappoint. Last 4 May, it published a progression of its turnover of 42 % for first quarter 2000 (to 6,124 billion euros) and a net income of 258 million euros, against a loss of 18 million euros one year earlier. But beyond these figures, it is the good behaviour of the sector of the infrastructures networks which carries the title. Thanks to a technology and to a know-how of foreground, the group does not finish any obtaining contracts. Not less than 5 were announced these last three days at the time of the SuperComm show, in particular in Asia and in the United States. Let us quote the two contracts for the supply of centers of contacts based on the Internet for the Information center of the Chinese Internet network (CNNIC) as well as the " Bank of Communications ". But also the signed contract, with the nose and the beard of its American competitors, with Total Photon Systems, Inc, of a value of more than 100 million dollars, for a terrestrial and underwater optical network completely integrated DWDM, on the West coast of the United States. On this technology known as " wet and dry ", Alcatel seems untouchable besides. More generally, the group has a line of goods one cannot more complete. ATM with the ADSL (which is exploding) while passing by the underwater infrastructures. Without forgetting the new technology of optical, faster and less expensive commutation (in the long term). The stake is here enormous puic the " optical whole " should gradually become the standard. As underlines it Eric Burkel, analyst at Handelsbanken Markets, Alcatel is one of only in the world, if it is not only, with being able to provide today a network very optical key-in-hand. The analyst of Lehman Brothers underlines on this subject that the group defined an action plan aiming at creating a single tool " Optinex CoreNode " gathering of routers IP/ATM, the optical gates and interfaces DWDM. He says himself in addition very trustful on the integration of Newbridge, which is essential insofar as the group aims at world signal 3 in the sector of the Networking Carrier, a market evaluated by Alcatel to 10 billion dollars. Eric Burkel specifies that, if this market has one limited lifespan (the " optical whole " threatening), its potential remains very strong A medium term, i.e. for at least 5 years more. If the future takes shape under best the auspices, remains to be known until where can still go the title. The analyst of Lehman Brothers little expensive considers it in term of PER (35 times 2001), showing a d‚c“te of 20-25 % compared to his principal competitors, Nortel, Lucent and Ericsson. Eric Burkel joins with this analysis and estimates that with the top of 10 %, the d‚c“te is not justified. The objectives of courses fixed by the analysts thus leave logically a margin of progression to the title. Lehman Brothers counts on 72 euros, Handelsbanken Markets on 74 euros, and SG Securities on 76 euros.(A.T.) Consensus Aof Recommendations To The 04.05.00 To buy 28 To preserve 3 To sell 1