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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (115250)	6/9/2000 8:49:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571236

Jim: There is a dearth of AMD's and TXN's in the marketplace, where both the technicals and fundamentals align themselves so synchronously...In my experience, one is fortunate to identify a $20 AMD in Nov. '99 or a $50 TXN in '95 once every 3 to 5 years...The commonality between AMD and TXN at their low is that historical performance had been so spotty that investors even when all signal lights were green were reluctant to invest because of historical concerns...Probably a good starting point in any effort to extract today's next big performer... Note: There's so much AMD upside left, imho, that there is no real burning need to unearth the next "big one", imho...AMD should keep moving upward for at least another year or two and provide an outstanding ROI over this interval. (I'm currently starting to glimpse the energy sector (i.e. gas and oil) to see if anything jumps off the page...natural gas seems to make some sense to me...exceedingly premature in my research at the moment)!

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (115250)	6/9/2000 9:23:00 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571236

Jim, Re: <any ideas on the next "once in a lifetime stock> No. I tend to bottom fish. Latest purchases TPTH, BRIO, AHR(from somebody on this thread, thank you), SGMA.(Bought SGMA today @ 4 3/8). None of them look, to me at the moment, like the potential of AMD for the next year. I've also been into AMKR & AHAA this year & think they may have legs(especially AMKR), but they JUST got too pricey for me. If anyone has any reasons why I shouldn't like these stocks I would certainly appreciate the input! tgptndr

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (115250)	6/10/2000 12:32:00 AM
From: minnow68	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571236

Jim, I'm in niceguy's position. I see stocks that I believe are undervalued. I see stocks that can do very well. BUT... 1) AMD seems more undervalued, relative to its performance and peers, than any other stock I see. 2) AMD seems to _still_ have more potential than most stocks I see. For example, why should I buy a stock that I think might go up 50% by year end when I believe AMD has a real shot at $300 a share? 3) The few stocks that I know of that have a chance of outperforming AMD are turn around cases where there are serious risks. For example, the risk of AMD going bankrupt by years end seems quite remote to me. I suppose an asteroid wiping out Austin could do it. As for what niceguy said about what sets these things up, I agree completely. The thing that creates the explosion in price in a short period of time is the company not performing for a long period of time. So to find the next "once in a lifetime", we need to explore the ranks of seriously underperforming companies. Now if one of us could only find the next diamond in the rough... Mike

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (115250)	6/10/2000 7:07:00 AM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571236

Jim Re..<<<<<So, Mike...any ideas on the next "once in a lifetime stock"? <<<<<<<<< Jim, if were looking for the next big stock, I think we should at what will likely be the next big technological wave; and I believe biotechnology will make far more advances than computers and chips ever thought off. And I am not just talking about medicines, but I think techs real payoff will come in altering plants to resist diseases and pests, so we can eliminate most pesticides. Yeasts that will become a clean and powerful fuel for the fuel cells of the future; microbes which will desalinate salt water so we can drink the pacific ocean dry. My bet is that 5 yrs from now, a big percentage of lifetime stocks will come from biotech. For now, back in Jan, VPHM announced trials on a cold medicine which could conciderably shorten the common colds. In May VPHM announced failure in trials and dropped from 90 to 10 currently. But a new derivative or changing doses might work. The point is that medicines which help every one world wide on a common problem , (colds, flu, diabeties.) will be big, but the company that develops the fat pill, will take you from rags to riches quickly. Hell, I would probably pay a million myself.