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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UnBelievable who wrote (53641)	6/10/2000 1:39:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Thanks for posting the article.

To: UnBelievable who wrote (53641)	6/10/2000 3:00:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

UnBelievable: I have never read Richard Russell before. I can't believe this guy mirrors much of my own work. (In all due respect, I guess since he has been at it much longer than me, I should say my work mirrors his...<g>) I thought I would fall out of my chair when I read his analogy of the seesaw...<g> And I think he is the first person I have read, that agrees with my assessment that the current bull market started in 1974. I particularly liked this Q&A exchange... Q: Does it bother you that many people consider technical analysis to be voodoo that doesn't make any sense? A: Yes. These people haven't done their homework. To me, that's one of the most incredible phenomena about investing. Here's an industry involving trillions of dollars, and guys haven't bothered to study it carefully. They haven't read Dow Theory, the basis of all technical analysis. They haven't really studied bull and bear cycles. They're amateurs. They haven't learned the lessons of history. Another statement that agrees with my own system...One of the basics of Dow Theory is that neither the duration nor extent of a move can be predicted in advance...Personally, I just try to be on the right side of the moves and identify SRLs to watch in advance to catch the next pivot. Then I note my technicals in real time as the price action comes into those ranges (horizontal price action areas or trend lines) and act accordingly. I guess if you want BS predictions with no analysis behind them, you can just go to the Market Direction BS thread...(appropriately named I might add)...seems the originator of that thread is obsessed with MDD...<ggg> Thanks for the article... Regards, LG

To: UnBelievable who wrote (53641)	6/10/2000 4:46:00 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 99985

great article.. russel at his finest...thanks for posting

To: UnBelievable who wrote (53641)	6/10/2000 6:33:00 PM
From: ChrisJP	Respond to of 99985

Thanks for posting the article. I enjoyed reading it. I don't know if I agree 100% with Richard Russell's conclusions. First, DOW is really not a very good indicator for the broader market or the economy. Second, the S&P 500 is doing a great job tracking its 200 day MA .... for now <grin>. Third, if he feels that current bull market started in 1974, then why can't our next recession/correction be treated like the recessions 1981-1982 and 1991-1992. I see no reason why this time is any different. If anything, things are better, since the major reason for the next economic downturn is rate hikes which the FED can simply take away, when the excesses of our economy are removed. So maybe the DOW and S&P correct 30% from here. Maybe the NASDAQ corrects 50%. Tough to think that everyone will be wiped out like in 1929. What I liked the most about the article, besides his overall wisdom, was this: Q: Are there any checkpoints on the way down? A: Not since 1982 has the Dow closed on any day below its low of the prior year. The 1999 low was 9120.67 in January. If that's broken this year, it would be another milestone on the downside, and you'd see more chaos than we've seen so far. I'm using NASDAQ 3000, S&P 1300, and CSCO 50 as my current thresholds. The concept of an index trading below last year's low as a threshold is a pretty good one, though. Regards, Chris