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To: Eric L who wrote (5415)	6/12/2000 1:24:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 34857

Eric - if Ira wants to "debunk myths" he needs to do that with facts and statistics instead of generalizations. "CDMA is spreading like a wildfire" When we see the 3Q 2000 subscriber growth rates for different digital standards, Ira is going to have a shock of his life. Five months ago it may have been possible to pretend that IS-95 will remain the fastest-growing digital standard in the world. That's not so easy anymore. Korean subsidy-ending decision will end one artificial boost; Unicom & China Telecom are creating the biggest volume boom in GSM history; the recent Circuit City profit warning shocker gave us an ugly snapshot of the current American handset sales. Right now, the real phone sales action is in Russia, Poland, Turkey, China, Philippines, India, etc. When the 3Q figures come out we'll see what is what and what is not. IS-95's 1999 growth rate was an artifact of several one-time events - like Sprint's strong first half growth, which has died down by now. As you know, Eric, the real subscriber growth wildfire in USA is GSM-1900 at this moment. If you look at the statistics, which were left out of this article entirely. "the U.S. wireless market is converting to digital at breakneck speed." No - it is not. It certainly wasn't five months ago. 4Q 1999 and 1Q 2000 figures showed indisputably how out of touch Ira was with this comment. Major operators in America are still stuck with huge analog subscriber bases - five years after Europe converted to digital. Half a decade time lag is not breakneck speed. US consumers are showing their displeasure at the digital standardization mess by having refused to convert from analog. What is more alarming - US subscriber growth rate remains stuck below the 40-50 fastest-growing markets in the world. The end result: America has already dropped out of the Top Twenty list of markets with the highest mobile phone market penetration. By the end of next year, it may be out of the Top Forty list. The digital fragmentation that Ira so admires is leaving USA fighting with Poland on the digital mobile phone market penetration charts. Mucho... there never were any Vikings in Finland. There were no major coastal settlements to raid - and those who ventured into forests never returned. Tero