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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5468)	6/12/2000 1:45:00 PM
From: Richard Monahan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero: Question: "and those who ventured into forests never returned" Because of the beauty, or because of the Bear?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5468)	6/12/2000 3:13:00 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

Tero, << When we see the 3Q 2000 subscriber growth rates for different digital standards, Ira is going to have a shock of his life. >> Let's wait till Q3 & Q4 statistics are in. Going back to his statement that "the U.S. wireless market is converting to digital at breakneck speed", I think we will see that when results are tallied. As you say, the real subscriber growth wildfire in USA is GSM-1900 at this moment (forecast close to 50% this year). This is made possible partly because of the myth that Ira debunks (competition among standards). Sprint PCS growth will probably slow somewhat. There is however some real focus at the entities with the big analog base to convert the old B carrier subscriber base. This is true of the entities that were BAM, GTE, & AT. PrimeCo also a candidate for good growth now that their subscribers can roam on the nationwide Verizon net and the same for the roaming partner Alltel. Add to this the $3.1 billion expenditure on the net and the focus front end on OTA provisioning and 2 way short messaging, and (finally) real emphasis in the outlets to convert the base to digital. Visit a Verizon store. Things have changed and will continue to change as the net gets overhauled and integrated and some regulatory issues are finalized. Give the consumer a reason to change sayeth Ira. 'T' is probably a little slow right now but they will kick in someday when EDGE net launches. Remember the myth Ira is debunking is that "the U.S. trails Europe in wireless technology". Next year we will see some 1xMC, some GPRS, and ... well I'm not counting on EDGE, but buildouts in progress. I favor open competition between standards. It certainly benefits me as a consumer. Things are looking pretty good here right now. Assuming the right <g> decision is made in Brazil things will look darned good across the Americas. Heck they will anyway. - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5468)	6/12/2000 5:29:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero, << US subscriber growth rate remains stuck below the 40-50 fastest-growing markets in the world >> Yup. Declining. Largest cellular subscriber base of any country in the world. Best wireline services in the world. Great modestly priced Internet connectivity with POPs everywhere and unmetered charges, over modem, xDSL, and Cable. What a country. Something for everybody. Still a pretty good market for handsets too. I happen to agree that 30% analog sales in 1999 is a bit embarrassing. Is there any reason why Verizon or 'T' just can't take all analog phones out of the lineup completely and substitute a dualmode model? .. or have one ... big, black, ugly, and more expensive than a dualmode? Sort of like a turntable as compared to a CD player. Strategis Group says in "U.S. Wireless Handsets: Marketshare and Trends" (January 25, 2000): * Handset Sales 1999 = 43.4 million * Handset Sales 2004 = 59.1 million * Net subscriber growth - declining each year 2000 forward. * Handset sales increasing well in both 2000 & 20001 then flattening or increasing only marginally thereafter. Relative to above: * Net add sales declining each year * churn sales fairly constant * Replacement sales increasing each year Handset Sales by Technology Year - 1999 / 2000 * Anlg - 30%/03% * -GSM - 07%/09% * TDMA - 31%/39% * CDMA - 32%/49% Interested in your comments on the Strategis numbers? Miss your old DeBry.com columns and Register articles, but glad you are here to keep us up to date. It would be nice if you revisited and updated your "Mobile Operators - The Impact of Globalization (Part I)" for DeBry (or us here) on it's 1st anniversary. It was a most excellent article. Unfortunately Part II Global Roaming - the Buck Rogers Bust, might be a bit painful right now if you revisited it. GSMA has been a big backer of mobile satellite telephony. Do you see any positive signs on the horizon for this technology? - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5468)	6/13/2000 12:44:00 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Interesting statistics about the US vs European markets....from SSB. This really surprised me. smithbarneyresearch.com VOICE TRAFFIC IS ALREADY EXPLODING IN THE UNITED STATES Despite the lower penetration, wireless subscribers within the United States are generating significantly more usage than European wireless subscribers measured on both a per subscriber basis and a relative per POP basis. The wireless industry in the United States should generate over 900 minutes per POP in 2000, which is at or above European levels, despite having a relatively low penetration. To determine the relative demand for spectrum, we have created a statistic we have named "voice utilization of spectrum" as a relative benchmark. This statistic is calculated by dividing total voice traffic (measured in million of minutes) by the POPs in the footprint and then divided by the amount of allocated bandwidth (as measured by MHz). While there is no magic number, higher values imply greater spectrum usage and efficiency. We view higher values as a leading indicator for spectrum demand. The United States should reach 4.3 minutes per POP per MHz in 2000, which is almost 30% above the European average. We found this particularly surprising given that the penetration is lagging its European counterparts and that only 60% of U.S. subscribers by year-end 2000 should be digital. While the large penetration of prepaid dilutes per subscriber traffic, deeper penetrations generally lead to greater usage levels.