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To: Paxb2u who wrote (54123)	6/14/2000 8:29:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Peter, not necessarily...but a gut-wrenching re-adjustment at the very least...the excesses demand to be wrung out, and it is difficult to see at this time how this can be done peacefully and without casualties. as i have repeatedly pointed out here, the derivatives game and the leverage in the system have become too large. you only have to consider for a moment that a single overleveraged hedge fund (LTCM) almost brought the entire system down all on its own, because an economically relatively unimportant country (Russia) collapsed. since that event, the big players have taken on a lot more risk and leverage, thus the systemwide risks have actually increased. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that should waning confidence induce a several sigma MCVHE (aka LLCF) at some point, the dislocations could lead to a systemic collapse. it wouldn't be the end of the world, but the weaker links in the chain would be destroyed, the rest severely chastened, and currently unregulated areas of finance would end up being regulated after all. regards, hb

To: Paxb2u who wrote (54123)	6/14/2000 8:30:00 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 99985

I Don't Want to Put Words in Either of HB's Mouths While I think the answer, and their answer is yes, it won't be as bad as it sounds. We will still have barcode readers.

To: Paxb2u who wrote (54123)	6/14/2000 8:34:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Peter I can speak for my self. The risk has grown substantially for the possibility of severe world financial turmoil which this time will hit also the US. During the period of 1997 through 1998 there was an relative insulated (for the US ) financial turmoil in Korea, SE Asia, Russia and CEE countries from which many have yet to fully recover. Many ECC countries, Burma, Indonesia (with close to 250 million people) still needs outside help. Haim