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To: mepci who wrote (157985)6/16/2000 5:11:00 PM
From: calgal  Respond to of 176388
 
Intel to unveil five mobile processors

cbs.marketwatch.com

By Janet Haney, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:39 PM ET Jun 16, 2000 NewsWatch
Latest headlines

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. (CBS.MW) - Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, plans to unveil five new mobile processors Monday, a step ahead of rival Advanced Micro Devices in the race to develop low-power computer chips.

Intel (INTC: news, msgs) said the new speedy processors will be used in mobile PCs - notebooks, thin, light and ultra-portable systems - and some are expected to use less power than other chips.

"This is not a paper announcement," said Nathan Brookwood, principal analyst at Insight 64, a market research and consultancy firm. "These processors are going to be available in products you'll see in the next 60 days."

Brookwood said the new processors fall into three Intel categories: the high-end line, or Pentium III; the value-line, or mobile Celeron; and the low-power line, or PIII with SpeedStep technology. A PIII processor with SpeedStep technology easily switches clock frequency and voltage, depending on whether the system is powered by batteries or plugged into AC power. Brookwood believes all the new processors will receive a "speed bump" from their current levels, with the PIII with SpeedStep increasing to 750 megahertz.

Frank Spindler, Intel's vice president and general manager of the Mobile Platforms Group, will present the new processors during an event to be held in San Francisco Monday.

Competition?

"The key thing there is that by using some pretty exotic process technology they are able to run that chip at a very low voltage compared to the desktop or earlier mobile products," Brookwood pointed out, referring to Intel's low-power PIII with SpeedStep processor push. "Consequently that has dramatic power savings and gets the chip down into the under 1 watt average power consumption." Brookwood did say that it's difficult to determine what the battery life will translate to.

New kid on the chip block, Santa Clara, Calif.-based Transmeta, also has its sights set on the low-power mobile device market and already has tapped such heavy-hitters as Gateway and America Online as customers, both of which have stakes in the chipmaker. Transmeta touts its Crusoe chips as offering longer battery lives while using less power.

"It's a little bit hard right now to make an apples to apples comparison to whether Intel's really going to be able to match Transmeta or not," offered Linley Gwennap, principal analyst at the The Linley Group, referring to the wattage of some Intel and Transmeta processors, as well as the battery life of devices using the chips. He pointed out that without knowing what the consumer is using their system for and to what intensity, a comparison is difficult.

Gwennap, however, added that after talking with some original equipment manufacturers, he believes the industry will see some new low-power notebook announcements using Transmeta chips possibly at this month's PC Expo.

"The OEMs have the chips, they're doing the tests themselves, they know what's going on," he said. "What I hear is that at least some of them are going with Transmeta."

Brookwood said, though, that ". . . there's nobody else that's shipping mobile products that Intel can take share from."

He thinks that such tech heavyweights as IBM (IBM: news, msgs), Compaq Computer (CPQ: news, msgs) and Dell (DELL: news, msgs) will be making announcements Monday that will revolve around new high-end mobile units using Intel?s new processors.

AMD

With Intel's announcement, the chipmaker adds even more fuel to the undying flame in its battle with rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, msgs). Brookwood said AMD is also expected to introduce new mobile processors in its K6-2+ line with its power-saving technology called PowerNow, and anticipates the announcement to also come during the PC Expo this month.



"Certainly, Intel's classic pattern is to keep ratcheting up the clock speeds, 50MHz here, 50MHz there and put the pressure on AMD," Gwennap said. "On the mobile side, there's still a little bit of a gap there so Intel's looking for a opportunity to deliver parts that AMD's not delivering and get some value to their customers that way."

"AMD's been doing very well, particularly in the [mobile] market that caters to small business and students and people who buy from retail," Brookwood countered.

Products

Brookwood said the PIII processor with SpeedStep technology is targeted at ultra-light notebook computers, such as Sony?s (SNE: news, msgs) VAIO 505 SuperSlim systems and other products in the 3 to 5 lbs. range. Meanwhile, the mobile PIII line is aimed at "road warriors" or commercial-grade equipment and the mobile Celeron goes into units that appeal to small businesses or students, he added.

Shares of Intel closed down 2 3/16 to 126 1/16 Friday, while AMD rose 1/8 to 83.



To: mepci who wrote (157985)6/16/2000 5:15:00 PM
From: Mike Van Winkle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176388
 
mepci re: Till now the best Dell said is 30% growth in earnings.

So far as I know, Dell has not raised their growth rate forecasts, yet the analysts say .92/sh for y2001. It doesn't make sense to me and I am listening to Dell until I can see a reason to raise my expectations. +30% is very hot growth for a company Dell's size as it means an even higher rate of actual growth due to the constant lowering revenue/box. We are talking about adding a new city like Austin in two years or less (given Nashville is on the build out).

Maybe you can find out what the analysts are thinking as I am out of the loop.
Mike



To: mepci who wrote (157985)6/18/2000 7:01:00 PM
From: kemble s. matter  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176388
 
Hi!!
RE: Till now the best Dell said is 30% growth in earnings.

Not real sure about your math and certainly when I do some I would question anything.. :o)
Here is what I have to date:

1st qt. .16
2nd qt. .21
3rd qt. .22
4th qt. .26

This I assume if my calculator is right would be .85...
And since the first qt. is already in @ .19 we are now at a minimum of .88..This would be a 29% increase over 1999 if DELL just hits the estimate...

Well, so why am I so high on what they can do? I actually judge this company by their word and don't usually attempt to pull a number out of the hat...Ohhh yeah I cheated last quarter and used Patrick's number but then we both kinda "listen" very very very closely to some key words or indications that have usually indicated an uptick...Sure Patrick does the math with all that sequential crap and Drew has all this margin stuff figured out...I'm just sitting back here listening...Listening for words that I have heard for years...Words that are in the present tense and not future...I love the future and hold with this company because of what they say about the future but let's face it...They haven't let us down yet with their optimism...

Recently Don Collis told us "We are on the road to being the premier Internet infrastructure company? Don Collis 6/14/200

I like the positive tone of this...And, then there was the recent statements by Michael:
I EXPECT IT WILL BE A VERY GOOD YEAR FOR US. WE EXPECT, IN DOLLAR TERMS, TO , BY FAR AND AWAY, EARN MORE REVENUE THIS YEAR THAN IN ANY YEAR IN OUR HISTORY, I HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING THAT WOULD LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT OUR MARKET IS SLOWING, IN FACT, SECOND QUARTER GROWTH FOR TOTAL INDUSTRY HAS BEEN THE MOST ROBUST IN THE LAST SEVEN YEARS.

In these two statements I find confirmation of goals they have been setting for shareholders...We are not talking here about the "old DELL"...They are talking about the "new DELL"...

So what's that got to do with estimates? I add .2 to every estimate that Michael Dell says is "ROBUST"...So, I added .2 to every quarter for the rest of the year...So, let's make that now .6 and a total of .94...
And perhaps this is low...Schneider has told us that the strength of the Windows 2000 for servers "increasing every week"...June 8th
Figuring also that corporate demand will really pick up in the second half my .2 may be low for the third and fourth quarters..Management has told us since the first of the year that the second half is where the real growth will be...
Then we have the guidance by Schneider who informed us at the conference call to "guide our estimates higher" for DELLVENTURES to the end of the year...So, I took that to mean that the .2cents that DELL made in the first quarter will be increased each quarter...And, seeing that we now have invested $800 million I'm inclined to think that the profitability will continue to rise just as he has stated it will...I then added .2 for the next quarter and .3 for the next two quarters bringing that total to .8 for the remaining three quarters...
Adding this all together I get $1.02...Seeing that we made $.68 last year that would be an even 50% for the year...
Let's also not forget that DELL has a lot going for it if some of the "if's" come through...Europe just being one of them...Convergenet another? Higher margin products?

BTW...You mentioned that DELL hasn't guided us forward yet on anything above 30%...Don't forget that it's "underestimate and then overachieve"...

Best, Kemble