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To: nbfm who wrote (12478)	6/16/2000 11:22:00 PM
From: solihull	Respond to of 13582

No. Message 13898103

To: nbfm who wrote (12478)	6/17/2000 2:02:00 AM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

is there any indication in the Korean press which would confirm or refute any claims of a manufacturing slowdown The following has been said before on this thread, but is worth repeating. Reason Korean gov't. ordered end to subsidies was to reduce domestic cell phone purchases so more phones could be exported. Why? To improve balance of payments, and factories could not produce more. Samsung reported in late May they were running factory 24/7. Their annual plan called for 25 million units this year with a top of 30 million. Samsung spokesperson went on to say that closer to 30 million looked like the actual they will hit. BTW, he said 70+% of their phone production is CDMA; rest is GSM phones they recently began manufacturing for sale in Europe.

To: nbfm who wrote (12478)	6/17/2000 10:46:00 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 13582

If the demand for phones in Korea has slowed because of the subsidy ban, by now Samsung and the other Korean manufacturers would have slowed production I havent seen any reliable reports yet.... However, it is impossible for me to see how a continued ban would not affect CDMA sales over the next three months in Korea. During last year, handset subsidies were reduced twice....both times saw a dramatic fall in new sub growth. If Korea was selling about 2m handsets a month during the first five months of the year (I think this is a reasonable estimate), I think that demand will probably fall by at least 1m phones a months for the next 3 months. Personally I cant find another region of the world that will pick up this slack. South America only added 1.4m new subs during the entire first quarter....and the US doesnt have a handset shortage that I can see (with the single exception of the Samsung 8500). I figure that the ban will either start affecting Korean handset manufacturers and be repealed....or if it is permanent, we will have to wait at least 3 months to see a more normal type of buying pattern out of Korea. Since consumers saw the handset subsidies come back twice last year, they are likely to wait a little while to see if this ban is permanent. This wont matter in the long run....but it could slow us down for the next couple of months. JMO.... Slacker