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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mozek who wrote (46951)	6/18/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

Mike - thanks for a great post. Those, like myself, who are MSFT investors but not unabashed MSFT partisans are looking for information to guide our strategy, not victory in an ideological battle. However, when the company gets drawn into a situation where business model and performance have less impact on stock price than the "perception" about what the company is and what is their philosophy, debate on those issues becomes germane. While I also get a little irritated with repetitive posts bashing MSFT technology or capability, I also think that routine discussion on those basic points can help to clarify thinking. If I am not prepared to support my thinking with substance, if I am unwilling to reiterate my positions in discussions with people who hold very different views, how firm are my beliefs in the value of my investment? Despite the partisan nature of many of the posts of Cheryl and JC (not to mention their volume), they present a viewpoint that is widely held in the developer community and in the industry. We can hardly look to the MSFT faithful to provide that viewpoint. In the last few months I have had discussions with reasonable people, who do not work for SUNW or in many cases even use any SUNW products, who expressed views far more extreme than those offered by Cheryl and JC. Current and potential MSFT investors will be hearing the same things. Do we want to have those discussions aired and debated in a reasonable way, with counter-arguments backed by references, or do we want to turn the thread into the "church of MSFT"? I am also a DELL investor and the debate on the DELL thread does not have nearly the level of lively debate as this thread. Long term bulls who see no possibility of anything but DELL conquering the world dominate the thread. Anyone who suggests that there may be a few challenges in taking a company which is really a retailer with a very efficient distribution model and having it demolish real tech powerhouses like CPQ, IBM and SUNW is immediately attacked as a short or at best a misguided bear. What investment advice can one get from that? A few determined posters manage to put some perspective into the debate, but it took nearly 2 years of flat stock price and the fulfillment of some less than super-optimistic predictions to get even the less bullish DELL posters to think about realistic expectations. These threads are a community, and no one person can dictate the path of discussion. Still, my goal, and I think the goal of many posters, is to stimulate debate which will highlight facts which might affect investment decisions. If we as MSFT investors have the strength of our convictions and good reasons for maintaining our MSFT holdings, we should be comfortable in discussing those reasons.

To: mozek who wrote (46951)	6/18/2000 11:20:00 AM
From: JC Jaros	Respond to of 74651

really, really stupid posts --- Now wait just a minute. Really, really stupid posts is the hallmark of this thread! <g> --- For my part, I apologize for calling Steve a congenital idiot and you a 'borg'. In the case of the latter, you know you're not the Borg. You don't for instance, find yourself becoming obsessed with all the legal goings on between Microsoft, and the federal government (along with 19 states) and taking a completely intransigent position just because Bill Gates does, right? -- right? -- RIGHT?! <g> --- I'm a great believer in two things (well, 3 if you count SUNW equity). The first thing is self-moderated message boards like this one. The second thing is good humor. Language can be quite imprecise given the absence of voice, inflections AND not being able to see other peoples faces and whatnot. It's best in this medium to learn to have the best humor possible and to not take oneself so seriously as to let anybody give you cause to reach for the beta blockers or thorazine. --- ad hominem attacks and non-sequitor arguments have always been, and I think, will always be the lingua franca (whatever that is) of obline message boards. I try to keep <g>=grins and smileys in my posts as much as possible, and even then don't do it enough to convey the humor implied. I've been a part of this (public messaging) medium for a long long time. Worse than that, I come from a DOS BBS background. That means that I'm a pathological flamer. It's become fused into my DNA. Although I really meant Steve was a congenital idiot, my deeper meaning was that we're *all congenital idiots (except Cheryl). I'm just saying everyone, in the course of making impassioned pleas for intellectual assistance, should default to <humor=ON> at all times. --- Because of your post mozek, I zoomed out on the thread and read the Rod McPherson posts. He has been on my ignore list (and on that of others) for a long time because of a decidedly non-humorous manner. He is quite aware of my not reading him and continues to make decidedly personal attack posts to me nonetheless. This is the kind of person on the other side of the screen there. I consider Rod McPherson to be a 'stalker' and I'm quite serious when I say that. I encourage others to be be aware of this guy and to think twice before responding to him. --- Mozek is right about respecting others opinions. The other part of that though is to have the greatest sense of humor possible (without turning into an PRCA online rodeo clown like me) and to not take yourself (or MSFTs future prospects) too seriously. -JCJ

To: mozek who wrote (46951)	6/18/2000 12:33:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Microsoft employees morale got to be high. (a) Strong product developments, great team (b) Stock options: 97 July grant : 36 (?) 98 July grant : 56 (?) 99 July grant : 86 00 April grant: 66 (4/24 special grant) 00 July grant : ?? (I would guess price between 72 - 96) That is a pretty rich option payout with time. The folks joined during the last one year have been under water but they will do just fine if the stock keeps moving up from here. In Jan 98 MSFT was at 32.5 and it more than doubled to 70 by Jan 99. Then from Jan 99 to Jan 00 it went from 70 to 120. So basically in 2 years the stock went from 32 to 120 or about 3.8 times this kind of gain was too much and was That was too much of a gain in one year and was way ahead of eps growth. So it is natural that we see pull back. Even with today's price, the stock has moved from 32 to 72 in 2.5 years. Not bad. Valuationwise it is a bite chaeaper than it was 2.5 years ago. I think 90 - 100 now would bring it to where it can considered fair valuation. I think in a year from now, the got to be in the 150 - 180 range or 75 - 90 after a 2:1 split. I expect a stock split in first half of 2001.